Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T13:26:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

6.5
score
41 0x41f3…a483 crypto 21 markets active 4d ago coverage 205d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$2,000 (+7%) realized +$1,246 · open +$754
Gross ROI / mkt +24% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +12% what you keep after slip
Net edge+12%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate58%11W / 8L
Drawdown32%max
Avg bet$1,315per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$20,005now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$34
7 days+$1,394
14 days+$1,015
30 days+$1,047
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 97% +$1,857
sports 2% +$26
crypto 0% +$61
economics 0% +$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)+12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +16.6% +5.5% 100% 67% +9.3%
≤30d 12 -53.2% -57.6% 42% 17% +2.8%
≤90d 16 +20.8% +9.3% 50% 25% +3.5%
all 19 +24.0% +12.2% 58% 26% +3.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +12.2% 26% +3.6%
10% +1.4% 16% -6.3%
15% -8.4% 11% -15.4%
20% -17.3% 11% -23.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 60% · top 2 86% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
55% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +24% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +123% → late -65% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$144 vs −$54 · ×2.65 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.17 per $1 lost it wins $4.17
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

205d coverage
Net worth$20,005
Realized+$1,246
Unrealized+$754
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses11 / 8
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)19 / 21
History coverage205d
Avg bet$1,315
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown32%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 19 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? No 91¢ 94¢ $10,113 $10,501 +$388 (+4%)
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? No 87¢ 90¢ $9,138 $9,504 +$366 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $466 +$34 +7%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $4,155 +$945 +23%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $2,086 +$414 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down on November 28? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,000 on January 2? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on January 1? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,200 on January 2? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in January? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,700 December 29-January 4? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $337 −$337 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 04 $501 +$26 +5%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 3 - 1 Arsenal FC? May 31 $94 +$7 +7%
Will Club Independiente Petrolero win on 2026-05-20? May 21 $462 +$39 +8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on January 2? May 19 $10 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,400 in January? May 19 $10 +$95 +950%
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? May 19 $100 +$12 +12%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,100 on January 2? Jan 02 $7 +$8 +119%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 02 $20 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 02 $20 +$1 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 89¢ $1,786 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 87¢ $437 6d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 93¢ $466 7d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 91¢ $912 7d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 87¢ $1,747 7d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 87¢ $1,743 7d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 33¢ $337 7d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 86¢ $1,731 7d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 91¢ $4,575 8d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 91¢ $4,562 8d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 86¢ $1,731 8d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 83¢ $1,668 11d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 81¢ $4,073 11d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 81¢ $81 15d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 83¢ $417 15d
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Mirra Andreeva BUY Mirra Andreeva 95¢ $501 19d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 91¢ $91 20d
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 3 - 1 Arsenal FC? BUY No 93¢ $94 30d
Will Club Independiente Petrolero win on 2026-05-20? BUY No 92¢ $462 36d
Will Ethereum dip to $2,400 in January? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 170d
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in January? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 170d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,200 on January 2? BUY Yes $1 172d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,100 on January 2? SELL No 41¢ $1 172d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,100 on January 2? SELL No 48¢ $7 172d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,100 on January 2? BUY No 30¢ $5 172d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,100 on January 2? SELL Yes 22¢ $7 172d
Will Ethereum dip to $2,700 December 29-January 4? BUY Yes $2 173d
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? BUY Yes 89¢ $100 173d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,000 on January 2? BUY No 48¢ $10 173d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,100 on January 2? BUY Yes $2 173d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $20,005.18 · official $20,005.18 (match) · 56 history records