Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T14:46:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
41 0x41f0…3eeb other 524 markets active 1h ago coverage 1148d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$6,478 (-4%) realized −$6,001 · open −$477
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate39%179W / 276L
Whale WR59%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$318per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$148est.
Kalshi-fit39%portable
Net worth$45,217now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$590
14 days−$941
30 days+$5,593
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 62% −$7,842
sports 16% +$9,243
politics 9% −$5,767
culture 6% −$1,101
economics 3% −$964
world 3% −$569
crypto 1% −$118
tech 1% −$60
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-25.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -1.4% -10.8% 60% 60% -56.5%
≤30d 21 +64.9% +49.2% 48% 43% +63.6%
≤90d 118 +2.9% -6.9% 45% 38% -13.0%
all 455 -17.5% -25.4% 39% 35% -14.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.4% 35% -14.8%
10% -32.5% 30% -23.0%
15% -39.0% 25% -30.4%
20% -45.0% 22% -37.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 59% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -25% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$224 vs −$170 · ×1.32 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1148d coverage
Net worth$45,217
Realized−$6,001
Unrealized−$477
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses179 / 276
Whale WR (big bets)59%
Est. fees paid−$148
Open positions69
Markets (closed)455 / 524
History coverage1148d
Avg bet$318
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit39%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 69 History 455 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 74¢ 74¢ $5,246 $5,211 −$35 (-1%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 90¢ 93¢ $4,847 $5,049 +$202 (+4%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 82¢ 80¢ $2,842 $2,764 −$78 (-3%)
Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 55¢ 50¢ $3,026 $2,733 −$293 (-10%)
Will Senegal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 67¢ 69¢ $1,968 $2,032 +$64 (+3%)
Will Sweden advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 72¢ 87¢ $1,282 $1,553 +$271 (+21%)
Will USA reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 32¢ 28¢ $1,599 $1,356 −$243 (-15%)
Will USA reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 57¢ 52¢ $1,250 $1,149 −$100 (-8%)
Will Lionel Messi score 4+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 28¢ 91¢ $339 $1,097 +$758 (+223%)
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 70¢ 68¢ $1,128 $1,096 −$32 (-3%)
Will Uruguay win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 69¢ 90¢ $791 $1,035 +$243 (+31%)
Will Colombia reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 48¢ 42¢ $1,157 $1,021 −$136 (-12%)
Will Mexico be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup? No 91¢ 88¢ $1,054 $1,012 −$43 (-4%)
Will Mexico reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 46¢ 35¢ $1,259 $958 −$301 (-24%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 88¢ 87¢ $973 $957 −$16 (-2%)
Will Panama finish last in Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 54¢ 83¢ $601 $925 +$324 (+54%)
Will Ghana advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 55¢ 75¢ $654 $896 +$242 (+37%)
Will Portugal reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 51¢ 57¢ $760 $862 +$102 (+13%)
Will USA be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? No 76¢ 73¢ $841 $812 −$29 (-3%)
Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 44¢ 32¢ $1,049 $753 −$296 (-28%)
Will USA reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 93¢ 91¢ $700 $689 −$11 (-2%)
Will Hakan Çalhanoğlu score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 32¢ 82¢ $265 $674 +$409 (+154%)
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 72¢ 76¢ $594 $631 +$37 (+6%)
World Cup: Scoreless Team? Yes 77¢ 84¢ $563 $614 +$51 (+9%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? No 44¢ 42¢ $600 $566 −$34 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 159 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Turkiye reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $250 +$250 +100%
Korea Republic leading at halftime? Jun 19 $19 +$4 +23%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $13 +$9 +70%
Will Paraguay finish last in Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Jun 17 $327 −$323 -99%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $538 −$530 -98%
Will Turkiye advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 14 $348 −$348 -100%
Will France be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? Jun 12 $43 −$3 -8%
Will Mirra Andreeva win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Jun 06 $21 +$250 +1215%
Will Tunisia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 04 $137 −$137 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $647 +$1,069 +165%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 02 $56 −$55 -99%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $1,014 +$873 +86%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $2,536 +$5,246 +207%
Will Raphael Collignon win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 30 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 30 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Andrey Rublev win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 30 $12 −$12 -98%
Will Ben Shelton win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 29 $250 +$13 +5%
Will Karolína Muchová win the 2026 Women’s French Open? May 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Will George Russell finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand May 25 $1 +$4 +400%
Will Oscar Piastri finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand May 25 $3 +$3 +100%
Olympiacos B.C. vs. Real Madrid May 24 $685 −$685 -100%
Valencia vs. Real Madrid May 23 $368 +$408 +111%
Olympiacos B.C. vs. Fenerbahce May 22 $471 −$471 -100%
Will Si Woo Kim win the 2026 THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson? May 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Arthur Fils win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 20 $25 −$25 -99%
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 19 $15 −$15 -97%
Will Albania be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $60 +$12 +19%
Will Austria be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $79 +$11 +14%
Will United Kingdom be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $118 +$8 +6%
Will Greece be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $78 +$79 +101%
Will Croatia be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $167 +$27 +16%
Will Denmark be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $122 +$107 +87%
Will Sweden be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $165 +$78 +47%
Will Cyprus be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $222 +$34 +15%
Will Malta be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $245 +$13 +5%
Will Malta be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $240 +$27 +11%
Will France be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $78 +$250 +322%
Will Belgium be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $325 +$25 +8%
Will Israel win the first Eurovision Semi-Final? May 17 $54 +$346 +641%
Will Serbia be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $380 +$56 +15%
Will Finland be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $89 +$441 +493%
Will Israel win the televote for Eurovision 2026? May 17 $303 +$248 +82%
Will Greece be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $184 +$378 +205%
Will Germany be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $534 +$62 +12%
Will Finland be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $159 +$560 +352%
Will Sweden be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $440 +$398 +90%
Will Cyprus be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $535 +$319 +60%
Will Poland be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $790 +$82 +10%
Will Croatia be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $1,189 +$356 +30%
Will Czechia be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $986 +$585 +59%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 51¢ $467 1h
Will Argentina reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 60¢ $84 1h
Will Argentina reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 60¢ $300 2h
Will USA reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 52¢ $91 2h
Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY No 31¢ $292 3h
Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 51¢ $609 4h
Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY No 31¢ $59 5h
Will Mexico be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? BUY No 61¢ $6 9h
Will Mexico be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? BUY No 61¢ $1 9h
Will Mexico be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? BUY No 61¢ $30 11h
Will Mexico be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? BUY No 61¢ $4 13h
Will Mexico be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? BUY No 61¢ $30 14h
Will USA reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 29¢ $51 21h
Will USA be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? BUY No 76¢ $161 22h
Will Senegal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 31¢ $117 24h
Will USA reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 93¢ $701 24h
Will USA be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? BUY No 76¢ $15 24h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 88¢ $976 24h
Will Senegal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 31¢ $153 24h
Will USA be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup? BUY No 85¢ $438 29h
Will Mexico be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? BUY No 62¢ $200 30h
Will Sweden advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 72¢ $1,222 30h
Will Sweden advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 69¢ $8 31h
Will Sweden advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 69¢ $62 31h
Will USA be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? BUY No 75¢ $15 44h
Will USA be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? BUY No 75¢ $8 46h
Will USA be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? BUY No 75¢ $119 2d
Will USA be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? BUY No 75¢ $64 2d
Will USA be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? BUY No 75¢ $59 2d
Will USA reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 28¢ $304 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.