Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T10:48:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

41
0x41f0…221e
sports · 237 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$80 -7%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$74 · open −$8
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$134
Realized−$74
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses77 / 117
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions43
Markets (closed)194 / 237
History coverage59d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day10.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%
Chart Positions 43 History 194 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days+$10
14 days−$65
30 days−$74
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Israel strike 4 countries in 2026? Yes 39¢ 42¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+9%)
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 33¢ 36¢ $6 $6 +$1 (+11%)
Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Yes 28¢ 46¢ $4 $6 +$2 (+63%)
Will Iran Play in the World Cup? Yes 97¢ 99¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+2%)
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 FURIA 62¢ 62¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+0%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? No 69¢ 69¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30? Yes 38¢ 37¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-3%)
OpenAI IPO before 2027? No 50¢ 49¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-3%)
Edi Rama out as Albania PM in 2026? No 59¢ 73¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+25%)
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 28¢ 26¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-5%)
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? No 26¢ 28¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+5%)
Will Ciro Gomes win the 2026 Ceará gubernatorial election? Yes 59¢ 63¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+6%)
Will Declan Rice score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 59¢ 46¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-21%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-10%)
Will "The Odyssey" be nominated for Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards? No 32¢ 30¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-7%)
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Yes 68¢ 73¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+8%)
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? No 46¢ 40¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-13%)
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 71¢ 74¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+3%)
Will Ukraine re-enter Uspenivka by December 31? Yes 38¢ 36¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-4%)
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 71¢ 72¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 21¢ 16¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-23%)
Will "Disclosure Day" be nominated for Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards? No 60¢ 64¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+8%)
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? No 32¢ 30¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-8%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-3%)
Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? Yes 16¢ 27¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+69%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 $0 -14%
Iran x Oman Strait of Hormuz agreement by June 15? Jun 12 $3 $0 -1%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $3 −$1 -43%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $4 $0 +14%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $1 +$1 +64%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $1 $0 -36%
Will Russia enter Stinky by July 31? Jun 12 $4 $0 -10%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $1 +$1 +119%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $6 +$4 +64%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $1 $0 -25%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 12 $9 −$1 -11%
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 22, 2026? Jun 12 $3 $0 -3%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $1 +$1 +54%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $15 −$1 -4%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $6 −$1 -17%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -70%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen Jun 12 $6 $0 -2%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 12 $4 $0 +4%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? Jun 11 $4 $0 +1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 11 $1 $0 -36%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 11 $7 −$5 -77%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027? Jun 11 $6 $0 +4%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in June? Jun 11 $10 −$1 -15%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 10 $6 −$1 -15%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 10 $2 $0 +0%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? Jun 09 $2 $0 -5%
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 09 $3 −$1 -25%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? Jun 09 $6 −$5 -84%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 09 $5 $0 -4%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? Jun 09 $2 −$1 -52%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 08 $6 +$2 +24%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $9 +$2 +20%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $6 −$3 -54%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 08 $3 $0 -11%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 08 $5 −$3 -65%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 08 $6 +$1 +14%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $1 −$1 -98%
Iran closes its airspace by July 15? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $5 +$28 +583%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? Jun 07 $3 $0 +14%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $1 $0 -5%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $3 +$2 +48%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs Legacy (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $4 −$4 -99%
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? Jun 07 $4 $0 +1%
Will Russia capture Orikhiv by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $6 $0 -0%
Will Ukraine re-enter Maliivka by December 31? Jun 06 $1 $0 -6%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $1 −$1 -97%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs B8 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $6 +$4 +61%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Lynn Vision (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $6 +$4 +58%
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 05 $3 $0 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 62% −$71
world 19% +$15
other 9% −$3
politics 7% −$18
finance 2% −$1
tech 1% −$1
culture 1% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? SELL No 18¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 41¢ $1 1h
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs KT Rolster (+2.5) BUY KT Rolster 52¢ $3 3h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY Yes 38¢ $2 6h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY Yes 38¢ $2 6h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY Yes 39¢ $2 6h
OpenAI IPO before 2027? BUY No 44¢ $2 6h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY FURIA 63¢ $3 7h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY FURIA 62¢ $3 7h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 20¢ $1 7h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Legacy 61¢ $1 7h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? SELL Yes 74¢ $2 13h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY No 26¢ $4 13h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? SELL Yes 74¢ $4 13h
Iran x Oman Strait of Hormuz agreement by June 15? SELL No 69¢ $1 14h
Iran x Oman Strait of Hormuz agreement by June 15? SELL No 69¢ $1 14h
Iran x Oman Strait of Hormuz agreement by June 15? SELL No 69¢ $0 14h
Iran x Oman Strait of Hormuz agreement by June 15? SELL No 69¢ $0 14h
Iran x Oman Strait of Hormuz agreement by June 15? SELL No 69¢ $1 14h
Iran x Oman Strait of Hormuz agreement by June 15? BUY No 69¢ $3 14h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 35¢ $2 15h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag SELL Spirit 80¢ $4 15h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $1 16h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL 9z 17¢ $2 16h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner SELL Spirit 42¢ $1 16h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Spirit 70¢ $4 17h
Will Russia enter Stinky by July 31? SELL Yes 24¢ $4 17h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 63¢ $1 17h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 74¢ $2 18h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL BetBoom Team 56¢ $10 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-18.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 48 -0.1% -9.6% 33% 25% -5.1%
≤30d 193 -10.2% -18.8% 39% 35% -16.8%
≤90d 194 -10.2% -18.7% 40% 35% -16.8%
all 194 -10.2% -18.7% 40% 35% -16.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover10.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.7% 35% -16.8%
10% -26.5% 29% -24.7%
15% -33.6% 25% -32.0%
20% -40.1% 20% -38.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $133.99 · official $133.96 (match) · 718 history records