Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T16:14:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

41
0x41e8…b994
sports · 113 markets active 20h ago
2.5score
+$14,721 +5%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$18,590 · open −$3,869
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$36,356
Realized+$18,590
Unrealized−$3,869
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses54 / 56
Whale WR (big bets)77%
Est. fees paid−$392
Open positions3
Markets (closed)110 / 113
History coverage174d
Avg bet$2,523
Trades / day3.9
Drawdown33%
Kalshi-fit89%
Chart Positions 3 History 110 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$50
7 days+$3,211
14 days+$6,555
30 days+$7,277
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 88¢ 80¢ $39,576 $36,036 −$3,540 (-9%)
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 10¢ 5¢ $500 $276 −$224 (-45%)
Will FUT win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $150 $45 −$105 (-70%)
Clavicular pregnancy in 2026? No 2¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs GamerLegion (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Group B FURIA 52¢ 0¢ $228 $0 −$228 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A Vitality 93¢ 0¢ $5,463 $0 −$5,463 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: M80 vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 M80 36¢ 0¢ $68 $0 −$68 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: B8 vs BC.Game Esports (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A BC.Game Esports 37¢ 0¢ $61 $0 −$61 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs GamerLegion (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Playoffs Astralis 40¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 GamerLegion 45¢ 0¢ $35 $0 −$35 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 TYLOO 2¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 M80 14¢ 0¢ $39 $0 −$39 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs Lynn Vision (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Lynn Vision 26¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs GamerLegion - Map 2 Winner FURIA 20¢ 0¢ $78 $0 −$78 (-100%)
Will GamerLegion win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: B8 vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 B8 43¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: G2 vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BIG 17¢ 0¢ $41 $0 −$41 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 FUT Esports 25¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $51 −$50 -98%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $5 −$5 -97%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $203 −$203 -100%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $40 −$39 -98%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $42 −$41 -98%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $101 +$40 +40%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 07 $152 +$94 +62%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $508 +$523 +103%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 07 $23,474 +$2,757 +12%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $102 −$100 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Liquid (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 05 $120 +$80 +67%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $120 +$155 +129%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs Lynn Vision (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $41 −$40 -98%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 03 $69 −$68 -99%
Will GamerLegion win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 03 $100 −$100 -100%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 03 $36 −$35 -98%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs NRG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $229 +$114 +50%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? Jun 02 $25,833 +$2,070 +8%
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? May 30 $5,621 +$1,404 +25%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 27 $65,347 +$1,460 +2%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? May 24 $5,487 −$962 -18%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? May 24 $518 −$262 -51%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Natus Vincere - Map 2 Winner May 17 $310 +$200 +64%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO5) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 17 $192 +$119 +62%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Natus Vincere - Map 2 Winner May 16 $141 +$51 +36%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Natus Vincere - Map 1 Winner May 16 $101 +$40 +40%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Playoffs May 16 $25 +$76 +307%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs BC.Game Esports (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A May 12 $63 −$61 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Passion UA - Map 2 Winner May 12 $34 +$7 +20%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A May 11 $5,474 −$5,463 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs BC.Game Esports (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group May 11 $5,152 +$323 +6%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Passion UA - Map 1 Winner May 11 $15 +$19 +132%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? May 10 $21,838 +$3,845 +18%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality (BO5) - BLAST Rivals Playoff May 06 $8,119 +$2,197 +27%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 May 03 $483 −$91 -19%
Will Vitality win BLAST Rivals Fort Worth 2026? May 03 $3,896 +$26 +1%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs GamerLegion (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Playoffs May 03 $6,808 +$928 +14%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs FaZe (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Playoffs May 02 $558 +$42 +8%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs GamerLegion (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Playoffs May 02 $100 −$100 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FaZe (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Playoffs May 01 $101 −$23 -23%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? May 01 $68 +$32 +48%
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? May 01 $2,781 +$1,463 +53%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 01 $300 +$235 +79%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs GamerLegion (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Grou May 01 $500 +$194 +39%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs G2 (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Group A May 01 $6,179 +$921 +15%
Clavicular pregnancy in 2026? Apr 30 $10 −$10 -95%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs GamerLegion (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Group B Apr 30 $852 −$269 -32%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs GamerLegion - Map 2 Winner Apr 29 $80 −$78 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Group A Apr 29 $5,029 +$1,152 +23%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 27 $17,467 +$7,747 +44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 78% +$17,615
sports 20% −$1,931
other 2% −$915
politics 0% +$99
tech 0% −$97
crypto 0% −$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 78¢ $3,120 19h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY FUT Esports 25¢ $51 27h
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY TYLOO 2¢ $5 3d
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY M80 20¢ $20 3d
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY M80 11¢ $20 3d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY BIG 11¢ $10 3d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY BIG 21¢ $32 3d
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY MIBR 58¢ $203 4d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 SELL FUT Esports 99¢ $1,031 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 90¢ $26,230 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? SELL No 99¢ $15,887 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? SELL No 99¢ $117 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? SELL No 99¢ $556 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? SELL No 99¢ $124 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? SELL No 99¢ $67 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? SELL No 99¢ $1 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? SELL No 99¢ $6 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? SELL No 99¢ $9,474 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 88¢ $10,226 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 12¢ $1,380 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 13¢ $1,495 4d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY FUT Esports 48¢ $508 4d
Counter-Strike: B8 vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY B8 43¢ $102 5d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY FUT Esports 71¢ $101 6d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Spirit 61¢ $152 6d
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs Lynn Vision (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 BUY Lynn Vision 26¢ $41 8d
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 BUY GamerLegion 43¢ $120 8d
Counter-Strike: M80 vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 BUY M80 36¢ $37 8d
Counter-Strike: M80 vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 BUY M80 35¢ $16 8d
Counter-Strike: M80 vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 BUY M80 35¢ $11 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-20.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -15.7% -23.7% 50% 50% +2.1%
≤30d 27 -2.3% -11.6% 56% 48% -4.4%
≤90d 101 -20.0% -27.6% 50% 40% -2.7%
all 110 -11.9% -20.3% 49% 39% -2.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover3.9 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.3% 39% -2.6%
10% ← realistic here -27.9% 33% -11.9%
15% -34.9% 29% -20.4%
20% -41.2% 16% -28.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36,356.40 · official $36,356.40 (match) · 797 history records