Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T14:03:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

41 0x41e7…474e crypto 24 markets active 2h ago coverage 42d

TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$46 (-0%) realized −$49 · open +$3

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -73% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -76% what you keep after slip

Net edge-76%after slip

Net WR0%break-even

Win rate27%6W / 16L

Whale WR100%big bets

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$603per market

Trades / day0.6pace

Kalshi-fit96%portable

Net worth$2,037now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days−$4

7 days−$12

14 days−$25

30 days−$18

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-75.3%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	3	-100.0%	-100.0%	0%	0%	-100.0%
≤30d	16	-62.4%	-66.0%	38%	0%	-9.7%
≤90d	22	-72.7%	-75.3%	27%	0%	-9.9%
all	22	-72.7%	-75.3%	27%	0%	-9.9%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.6 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-75.3%	0%	-9.9%
10%	-77.6%	0%	-18.5%
15%	-79.8%	0%	-26.4%
20%	-81.8%	0%	-33.6%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 17% · top 2 33% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -73% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR 100% (≥$2,051) strong on big bets

Persistence

early -82% → late -64% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$4 vs −$4 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.33 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

42d coverage

Net worth$2,037

Realized−$49

Unrealized+$3

Win rate (resolved)27%

Wins / losses6 / 16

Whale WR (big bets)100%

Open positions2

Markets (closed)22 / 24

History coverage42d

Avg bet$603

Trades / day0.6

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 22 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on June 25?	Yes	100¢	100¢	$2,029	$2,032	+$3 (+0%)
10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?	No	96¢	98¢	$5	$5	+$0 (+2%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 23?	Jun 24	$4	−$4	-100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 23?	Jun 23	$4	−$4	-100%
Will the price of XRP be between $0.90 and $1.00 on June 20?	Jun 20	$4	−$4	-100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 17?	Jun 17	$4	−$4	-100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 16?	Jun 16	$4	−$4	-99%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on June 13?	Jun 13	$4	−$4	-100%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on June 11?	Jun 11	$4	−$4	-100%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 on June 6?	Jun 07	$2,071	+$4	+0%
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on June 6?	Jun 06	$2,067	+$4	+0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 on June 5?	Jun 06	$2,062	+$4	+0%
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on June 5?	Jun 05	$2,055	+$4	+0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 on June 4?	Jun 05	$2,056	+$4	+0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 4?	Jun 04	$2,051	+$4	+0%
Will the price of XRP be between $0.90 and $1.00 on June 3?	Jun 03	$4	−$4	-100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on May 30?	May 30	$4	−$4	-100%
Will Bitcoin reach $77,000 on May 27?	May 28	$4	−$4	-100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 on May 24?	May 25	$6	−$6	-100%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.20 on May 23?	May 23	$4	−$4	-100%
Will Ethereum reach $2,150 on May 22?	May 23	$4	−$4	-100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 20?	May 20	$6	−$6	-100%
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on May 17?	May 17	$4	−$4	-100%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 on May 14?	May 14	$4	−$4	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on June 25?	BUY Yes	100¢	$2,029	1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 23?	BUY Yes	0¢	$4	36h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 23?	BUY No	0¢	$4	2d
Will the price of XRP be between $0.90 and $1.00 on June 20?	BUY Yes	0¢	$4	5d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 17?	BUY No	0¢	$4	8d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 16?	BUY No	0¢	$4	9d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 16?	BUY No	0¢	$1	9d
10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?	BUY No	96¢	$5	11d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on June 13?	BUY Yes	0¢	$4	12d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on June 11?	BUY Yes	0¢	$4	14d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 on June 6?	BUY No	100¢	$2,071	18d
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on June 6?	BUY No	100¢	$2,067	19d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 on June 5?	BUY No	100¢	$2,062	19d
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on June 5?	BUY No	100¢	$2,055	20d
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 on June 4?	BUY No	100¢	$2,056	20d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 4?	BUY Yes	100¢	$2,051	21d
Will the price of XRP be between $0.90 and $1.00 on June 3?	BUY Yes	0¢	$4	22d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on May 30?	BUY Yes	0¢	$4	26d
Will Bitcoin reach $77,000 on May 27?	BUY Yes	0¢	$4	28d
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 on May 24?	BUY Yes	0¢	$6	31d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.20 on May 23?	BUY No	0¢	$4	33d
Will Ethereum reach $2,150 on May 22?	BUY Yes	0¢	$4	33d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 20?	BUY Yes	0¢	$6	36d
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on May 17?	BUY No	0¢	$4	39d
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 on May 14?	BUY Yes	0¢	$4	41d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,037.23 · official $2,037.23 (match) · 32 history records