Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T10:59:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

41
0x41e6…5927
sports · 132 markets active 1h ago
4.5score
+$58 +14%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$58 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFresh edge
Net worth$2
Realized+$58
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses76 / 54
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)130 / 132
History coverage156d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown30%
Kalshi-fit99%
Chart Positions 2 History 130 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$1
14 days−$1
30 days+$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Stars vs. Wild: O/U 7.5 Under 76¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+32%)
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 10.5 Under 76¢ 76¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will Richard Grenell be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes $0 $0 +$0 (+50%)
Madrid Open: Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Flavio Cobolli Camilo Ugo Carabelli 33¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Hornets vs. Suns Hornets 63¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Magic vs. Lakers Lakers 65¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Raptors vs. Timberwolves Raptors 35¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Wizards vs. Suns Wizards 14¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Warriors vs. Wizards Wizards 27¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Cleveland Guardians vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 4.5 Over 78¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Hawks vs. Trail Blazers Hawks 61¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Heat vs. Pacers Heat 69¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will Beth Van Duyne win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? Yes $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Ducks vs. Predators: O/U 7.5 Under 71¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Red Wings vs. Panthers: O/U 7.5 Under 72¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Wizards vs. Heat Wizards 10¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 10.5 Over 31¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Thunder vs. Timberwolves Thunder 67¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Trail Blazers vs. Hawks Trail Blazers 32¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Charleston Cougars vs. Campbell Fighting Camels Campbell Fighting Camels 58¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Thunder vs. Suns Suns 30¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Raptors vs. Trail Blazers Trail Blazers 42¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 6.5 Over 80¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Gaubas vs. Silva: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Over 22¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Grizzlies vs. Nets Grizzlies 49¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 5.5 Jun 13 $1 +$5 +335%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 6.5 Jun 11 $1 −$1 -99%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 10.5 Jun 10 $1 −$1 -99%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 10.5 Jun 09 $1 −$1 -99%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 4.5 Jun 09 $1 $0 +23%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 10.5 Jun 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 10.5 Jun 06 $1 +$1 +40%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 11.5 Jun 05 $1 −$1 -99%
Sabalenka vs. Shnaider: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 03 $1 −$1 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 11.5 Jun 03 $1 $0 +29%
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 5.5 Jun 02 $1 $0 +42%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 5.5 Jun 01 $1 $0 +36%
Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 12.5 May 30 $1 $0 +34%
Sierra vs. Cirstea: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 May 29 $1 $0 +24%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 4.5 May 27 $1 −$1 -99%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 10.5 May 27 $2 +$5 +212%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 10.5 May 24 $2 $0 +31%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 4.5 May 23 $1 −$1 -99%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 10.5 May 21 $2 +$1 +34%
Gaubas vs. Silva: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 May 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 20 $1 $0 +42%
Manas vs. Krueger: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 May 18 $1 $0 +31%
San Francisco Giants vs. Athletics: O/U 7.5 May 18 $2 +$1 +40%
Roncadelli vs. Serna: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 May 16 $1 +$5 +456%
Bengaluru 2: Philip Sekulic vs Kriish Tyagi May 15 $1 $0 +1%
Sierra vs. Yastremska: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 May 14 $1 $0 +42%
Wild vs. Avalanche: O/U 7.5 May 14 $1 $0 +40%
Dickerson vs. Kicker: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 May 14 $1 $0 +20%
Gallego vs. Dickerson: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 May 11 $1 −$1 -99%
Gauff vs. Jovic: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 May 10 $1 −$1 -99%
Townsend vs. Jovic: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 May 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Noguchi vs. Cui: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 May 08 $1 $0 +36%
Singh vs. Marrero: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 May 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Ducks vs. Golden Knights: O/U 4.5 May 07 $1 +$5 +426%
Putintseva vs. Valentova: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 May 06 $1 $0 +44%
Flyers vs. Hurricanes: O/U 4.5 May 05 $1 $0 +40%
Cui vs. Galarneau: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 May 04 $2 +$1 +38%
Onclin vs. Coulibaly: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 May 02 $1 +$4 +257%
Lightning vs. Canadiens: O/U 7.5 May 02 $1 $0 +24%
LoL: Eintracht Frankfurt vs VfB eSports (BO3) - Prime League 1st Divis Apr 30 $1 $0 +14%
Wild vs. Stars: O/U 7.5 Apr 29 $1 $0 +23%
Penguins vs. Flyers: O/U 4.5 Apr 29 $1 −$1 -99%
Avalanche vs. Kings: O/U 7.5 Apr 27 $1 $0 +24%
Madrid Open: Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Flavio Cobolli Apr 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Utah: O/U 7.5 Apr 25 $1 $0 +27%
Sabres vs. Bruins: O/U 4.5 Apr 23 $1 −$1 -99%
Utah vs. Golden Knights: O/U 4.5 Apr 22 $2 $0 +29%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers: O/U 223.5 Apr 22 $1 +$1 +83%
Stars vs. Wild: O/U 7.5 Apr 22 $1 $0 +31%
Warriors vs. Hawks Apr 19 $1 $0 +24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 69% +$58
other 18% $0
politics 13% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 76¢ $1 1h
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 23¢ $0 2d
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 23¢ $0 2d
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 23¢ $0 2d
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 23¢ $0 2d
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 80¢ $1 3d
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 76¢ $1 4d
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 71¢ $1 5d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 81¢ $1 6d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 31¢ $1 7d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 31¢ $0 7d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 31¢ $1 7d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 31¢ $1 7d
Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 71¢ $1 8d
Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 11.5 BUY Under 77¢ $1 9d
Sabalenka vs. Shnaider: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 BUY Over 18¢ $0 11d
Sabalenka vs. Shnaider: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 BUY Over 18¢ $0 11d
Sabalenka vs. Shnaider: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 BUY Over 18¢ $0 11d
Sabalenka vs. Shnaider: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 BUY Over 18¢ $0 11d
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 11.5 BUY Under 77¢ $1 12d
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 70¢ $1 13d
Los Angeles Angels vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 73¢ $1 13d
Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 12.5 BUY Under 74¢ $1 16d
Sierra vs. Cirstea: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 BUY Under 80¢ $1 16d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 79¢ $1 18d
Los Angeles Angels vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 32¢ $0 19d
Los Angeles Angels vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 32¢ $1 19d
Los Angeles Angels vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 32¢ $1 19d
Los Angeles Angels vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 32¢ $1 19d
Cleveland Guardians vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 76¢ $2 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)+2.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +11.5% +0.9% 40% 40% +9.4%
≤30d 25 +20.3% +8.8% 64% 60% +11.8%
≤90d 65 +23.3% +11.6% 66% 63% +29.3%
all 130 +13.3% +2.5% 58% 57% +8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.5% 57% +8.7%
10% -7.3% 52% -1.7%
15% -16.3% 36% -11.2%
20% -24.5% 23% -19.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.44 · official $2.44 (match) · 244 history records