Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T08:40:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

41
0x41e6…88f4
crypto · 26 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$19 -5%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$19 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$19
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses15 / 11
Open positions0
Markets (closed)26 / 26
History coverage78d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 0 History 26 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days−$9
14 days−$9
30 days−$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31? Yes 14¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 13 $16 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 13 $17 −$2 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 13 $15 +$5 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 13 $12 +$3 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 13 $15 +$3 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 13 $12 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 12 $33 −$7 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 12 $12 −$2 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$7 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 12 $42 −$25 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 12 $22 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 12 $26 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 12 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 12 $20 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 12 $12 +$2 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 12 $12 −$2 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 12 $14 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 12 $11 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 12 $16 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 12 $4 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 12 $25 +$1 +4%
Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31? Mar 27 $11 −$11 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 97% −$9
world 3% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET SELL Down 45¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET SELL Down 6¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET SELL Up 53¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET SELL Up 59¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET SELL Down 69¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET SELL Down 71¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET SELL Down 6¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $10 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $12 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $10 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET SELL Down 68¢ $7 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET SELL Down 93¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET SELL Down 79¢ $13 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $10 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $11 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $10 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-13.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -1.1% -10.5% 60% 28% -11.6%
≤30d 25 -1.1% -10.5% 60% 28% -11.6%
≤90d 26 -4.9% -13.9% 58% 27% -14.1%
all 26 -4.9% -13.9% 58% 27% -14.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.9% 27% -14.1%
10% -22.2% 12% -22.3%
15% -29.7% 4% -29.8%
20% -36.6% 4% -36.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 121 history records