Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:19:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
41 0x41e5…da8f crypto 95 markets active 6d ago coverage 60d ⚠
BOTnot copyable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 60d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (57 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$3,201 (+27%) realized +$3,201 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate31%30W / 66L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$124per market
Trades / day56.7pace
Fees−$31est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 60d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 82% −$979
sports 8% −$4
politics 5% +$6
other 4% +$7
economics 1% −$3
finance 0% +$2
world 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (57 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-15.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 79 -16.3% -24.3% 34% 8% -17.2%
≤30d 79 -16.3% -24.3% 34% 8% -17.2%
≤90d 96 -6.1% -15.1% 31% 9% -17.2%
all 96 -6.1% -15.1% 31% 9% -17.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover56.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.1% 9% -17.2%
10% ← realistic here -23.2% 7% -25.1%
15% -30.6% 5% -32.3%
20% -37.4% 4% -39.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 63% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
70% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late -23% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
21.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$22 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.32 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

60d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$3,201
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses30 / 66
Est. fees paid−$31
Open positions23
Markets (closed)96 / 95
History coverage60d ⚠
Avg bet$124
Trades / day56.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 23 History 96 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 11¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+27%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+8%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 22¢ 24¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+11%)
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 6¢ 10¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+66%)
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 6¢ 7¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+14%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-12%)
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-29%)
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Yes 5¢ 2¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-63%)
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-68%)
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+32%)
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+22%)
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-12%)
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-20%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-29%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-29%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+45%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-53%)
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-7%)
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-5%)
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-20%)
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-25%)
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-90%)
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 25 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Miami Heat win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 17 $0 −$6 -114711%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 17 $0 −$3 -17697%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 17 $0 −$6 -11221%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 17 $0 −$3 -143626%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 17 $0 −$4 -63505%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 17 $0 −$1 -6007%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 17 $0 −$2 -7580%
Netanyahu out by April 30? Jun 17 $0 $0 -2713%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 11 $15 −$1 -4%
Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 11 $20 $0 -1%
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Jun 11 $70 +$5 +7%
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $115 −$2 -1%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 11 $125 −$3 -2%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 11 $130 +$1 +1%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $4 +$1 +23%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele Jun 11 $5 $0 +0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $3 $0 +0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $8 $0 -2%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $5 $0 -3%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 11 $3 $0 -2%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 11 $5 $0 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? Jun 11 $5 $0 +3%
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $95 +$3 +3%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 11 $9 $0 +1%
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Jun 11 $45 +$1 +2%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? Jun 11 $5 +$2 +37%
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to no prison time? Jun 11 $4 $0 -2%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $10 +$1 +7%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $173 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 11 $35 $0 +0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $10 $0 -2%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 11 $5 −$1 -15%
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? Jun 11 $10 −$1 -7%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 11 $4 $0 -2%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $10 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 11 $41 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 11 $24 +$26 +108%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 11 $28 −$18 -65%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 11 $135 −$60 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 11 $149 −$33 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 11 $441 −$5 -1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 11 $278 +$6 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 11 $184 −$116 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 11 $345 −$135 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 11 $464 −$74 -16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 11 $431 −$132 -31%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 11 $278 −$145 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 11 $450 −$8 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 11 $346 −$107 -31%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 11 $347 +$184 +53%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL Yes 13¢ $0 5d
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 30¢ $0 5d
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 21¢ $0 5d
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes 28¢ $0 5d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 83¢ $1 5d
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele SELL No 55¢ $0 5d
Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 71¢ $0 5d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 84¢ $1 5d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $0 5d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $0 5d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $0 5d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 77¢ $1 5d
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 15¢ $0 5d
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes 15¢ $0 5d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 83¢ $0 5d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? SELL No 97¢ $1 5d
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL No 86¢ $1 5d
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 87¢ $1 5d
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL Yes 42¢ $0 5d
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $1 5d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? SELL No 94¢ $1 5d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele SELL No 12¢ $0 5d
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to no prison time? SELL No 16¢ $0 5d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 15¢ $0 5d
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 72¢ $0 5d
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 34¢ $0 5d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 57¢ $0 5d
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 5d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 9¢ $0 5d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 85¢ $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.30 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records