Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T03:44:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
41 0x41e4…3848 crypto 211 markets active 1h ago coverage 600d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,523 (-19%) realized −$1,525 · open +$2
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate40%84W / 126L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$12now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$112
7 days−$112
14 days−$77
30 days−$193
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 39% −$161
crypto 27% −$630
politics 13% −$459
culture 10% −$111
sports 9% −$201
tech 1% −$22
world 1% −$40
finance 0% +$6
economics 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-24.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -14.8% -22.9% 0% 0% -15.9%
≤30d 5 -4.9% -14.0% 40% 40% -16.8%
≤90d 17 -8.8% -17.5% 35% 29% -17.1%
all 210 -16.4% -24.3% 40% 33% -22.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.3% 33% -22.9%
10% -31.6% 23% -30.3%
15% -38.2% 19% -37.0%
20% -44.2% 12% -43.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$19 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.33 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

600d coverage
Net worth$12
Realized−$1,525
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses84 / 126
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)210 / 211
History coverage600d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 210 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026? Yes 57¢ 72¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+24%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 37 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $1,484 −$87 -6%
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? Jun 17 $106 −$25 -24%
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? Jun 06 $196 +$35 +18%
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? May 29 $502 −$130 -26%
Starmer out by May 19, 2026? May 18 $111 +$14 +13%
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? May 12 $97 −$2 -2%
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Apr 20 $20 −$19 -94%
Anduril IPO before 2027? Apr 10 $5 +$1 +16%
Will August be the best month for Bitcoin in 2026? Apr 10 $5 −$1 -20%
Will July be the best month for Bitcoin in 2026? Apr 10 $5 −$1 -14%
Will June be the best month for Bitcoin in 2026? Apr 10 $10 −$3 -28%
Will May be the best month for Bitcoin in 2026? Apr 10 $5 −$2 -43%
Will Connecticut win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Apr 06 $2 +$2 +91%
Starmer out by March 31, 2026? Apr 02 $12 +$2 +19%
Will Nebraska win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 27 $1 $0 -30%
Will Iowa win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 23 $1 $0 -27%
Texas Longhorns vs. BYU Cougars Mar 21 $7 +$1 +7%
Will Trump visit China by March 31? Feb 24 $5 +$1 +28%
Will Zootopia 2 be the third highest grossing movie of 2025? Jan 10 $15 +$9 +59%
Will Zootopia 2 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jan 10 $72 +$24 +33%
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jan 10 $70 +$37 +52%
Will 'Avatar: Fire and Ash' have the best domestic opening weekend in Dec 06 $30 −$21 -69%
Will Wicked: For Good be the third highest grossing movie of 2025? Dec 06 $100 −$83 -83%
Will Wicked: For Good be the second highest grossing movie of 2025? Dec 06 $25 −$24 -94%
Will Lilo and Stitch be the second highest grossing movie of 2025? Nov 24 $10 +$28 +278%
Will the Dallas Mavericks make the NBA Playoffs? Nov 14 $5 +$2 +40%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in November? Nov 14 $5 −$4 -74%
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31? Nov 05 $10 +$3 +28%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder finish with the best record in the NBA? Oct 30 $5 +$2 +46%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? Oct 30 $70 +$84 +120%
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in 2025? Oct 22 $5 $0 +1%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jul 23 $5 −$3 -55%
Will Superman be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jul 21 $15 −$13 -87%
Will The Fantastic Four: First Steps be the top grossing movie of 2025 Jul 16 $25 −$9 -36%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025? Jul 16 $10 −$5 -46%
Will Solana reach $160 in July? Jul 15 $5 +$2 +49%
Will Bitcoin dip to $100K in July? Jul 09 $5 −$3 -68%
Will Bitcoin close above $100K on July 31? Jul 09 $20 −$11 -53%
Will Bitcoin close above $95K on July 31? Jul 09 $20 −$13 -63%
Will Jurassic World: Rebirth be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jul 03 $165 −$75 -46%
Solana ETF approved in 2025? Jul 03 $5 +$1 +13%
Will Bitcoin reach $110K in July? Jul 03 $5 +$2 +41%
Will Solana dip to $140 in July? Jul 02 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before July? Jun 24 $10 −$9 -93%
Will Bitcoin dip to $95K in June? Jun 24 $5 −$3 -62%
Will Bitcoin dip to $100K in June? Jun 23 $5 +$5 +108%
Pacers vs. Thunder Jun 23 $5 −$2 -38%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jun 23 $40 −$10 -26%
Thunder vs. Pacers Jun 22 $5 +$6 +117%
Will the Thunder beat the Pacers 4-3? Jun 20 $10 +$10 +104%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? SELL No 70¢ $1,262 1h
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? SELL No 51¢ $81 1h
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? BUY No 65¢ $106 19d
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? SELL No 30¢ $105 19d
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $126 29d
Starmer out by May 19, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $125 29d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $999 32d
Starmer out by May 19, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $111 33d
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $19 33d
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? BUY No 34¢ $26 35d
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? BUY No 77¢ $50 35d
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $95 35d
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? BUY No 31¢ $51 35d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY No 67¢ $51 36d
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? BUY No 39¢ $51 36d
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $97 36d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY No 68¢ $101 36d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY No 68¢ $203 36d
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? SELL No 34¢ $267 37d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? SELL No 68¢ $135 37d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY No 83¢ $5 39d
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? BUY No 52¢ $103 39d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY No 59¢ $60 54d
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? SELL Yes $1 58d
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? BUY Yes $20 61d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY No 77¢ $50 66d
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? BUY No 48¢ $50 66d
Anduril IPO before 2027? SELL No 81¢ $6 68d
Will August be the best month for Bitcoin in 2026? SELL Yes $4 68d
Will July be the best month for Bitcoin in 2026? SELL Yes $4 68d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12.45 · official $12.45 (match) · 537 history records