Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T02:15:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
41 0x41e2…e810 weather 210 markets active 1h ago coverage 82d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$79 (-30%) realized −$78 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate18%36W / 162L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day4.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$17now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$5
14 days−$36
30 days−$46
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% −$87
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-37.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 47 -8.1% -16.8% 21% 17% -17.7%
≤30d 158 -28.1% -35.0% 19% 15% -34.6%
≤90d 198 -30.4% -37.1% 18% 14% -41.5%
all 198 -30.4% -37.1% 18% 14% -41.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -37.1% 14% -41.5%
10% -43.1% 13% -47.1%
15% -48.6% 11% -52.2%
20% -53.6% 10% -56.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -35% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -30% · $-wt -35% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -46% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.82 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.4 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

82d coverage
Net worth$17
Realized−$78
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses36 / 162
Open positions12
Markets (closed)198 / 210
History coverage82d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day4.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 198 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on June 18? Yes 7¢ 12¢ $2 $4 +$2 (+79%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 18? Yes 23¢ 27¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+17%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on June 17? Yes 23¢ 26¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+11%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 17? Yes 25¢ 27¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on June 17? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-5%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 17? Yes 26¢ 24¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-8%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 18? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+9%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 17? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 17? Yes 17¢ 12¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-26%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 17? Yes 9¢ 6¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-39%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 17? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 16? Yes 26¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 86 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 18? Jun 17 $2 $0 -11%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -91%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 17? Jun 16 $1 $0 -43%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 17? Jun 16 $1 +$1 +53%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 +$3 +301%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on June 16? Jun 16 $1 $0 -19%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 88-89°F on June 16? Jun 16 $1 $0 -43%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 16? Jun 16 $1 $0 -33%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 17? Jun 16 $1 $0 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on June 17? Jun 16 $1 $0 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 17? Jun 16 $1 $0 -28%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 $0 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 17? Jun 15 $1 $0 -22%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 17? Jun 15 $1 $0 -19%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 17? Jun 15 $1 $0 -25%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 16? Jun 15 $1 $0 -15%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 16? Jun 15 $1 $0 -22%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on June 16? Jun 15 $1 $0 -18%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 16? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 16? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on June 16? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -84%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 +$3 +286%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on June 10? Jun 11 $1 +$3 +271%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on June 12? Jun 11 $1 $0 -47%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 -18%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -68%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on June 12? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 11? Jun 10 $1 $0 -23%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 11? Jun 10 $1 $0 -17%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 25°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 +$5 +465%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 31°C on June 12? Jun 10 $1 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 12? Jun 10 $1 $0 -28%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 11? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -48%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on June 12? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 12? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on June 11? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on June 11? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 9? Jun 10 $1 +$3 +257%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 25°C on June 11? Jun 10 $1 $0 -20%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 $0 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C on June 11? Jun 10 $1 $0 -31%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 10? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on June 10? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 18? SELL Yes 16¢ $2 44m
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 17? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 53m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 18? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 53m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 53m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 17? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 53m
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 17? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 18? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on June 18? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 18? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 17? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 17? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on June 17? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on June 17? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 18? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on June 18? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 18? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 17? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on June 17? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 17? SELL Yes 13¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on June 17? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 17? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 17? SELL Yes 33¢ $2 5h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on June 16? SELL Yes 15¢ $1 12h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 88-89°F on June 16? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 16h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 16? SELL Yes 16¢ $1 22h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 17? SELL Yes 24¢ $1 23h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on June 17? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 24h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 88-89°F on June 16? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 24h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 17? SELL Yes 21¢ $1 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $17.42 · official $17.42 (match) · 337 history records