Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T06:40:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
41 0x41e1…8058 sports 4 markets active 2h ago coverage 16d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$26 (+22%) realized +$26 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%2W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 16d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 80% −$19
politics 20% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -14.9% -23.0% 50% 50% -42.5%
≤30d 4 -0.8% -10.2% 50% 50% -27.2%
≤90d 4 -0.8% -10.2% 50% 50% -27.2%
all 4 -0.8% -10.2% 50% 50% -27.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 50% -27.2%
10% -18.8% 50% -34.2%
15% -26.7% 50% -40.5%
20% -33.9% 25% -46.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 70% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$25 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$26
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses2 / 2
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)4 / 4
History coverage16d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 4 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 5.5 Jun 27 $47 −$47 -99%
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $28 +$20 +70%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $19 +$8 +43%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 11 $23 −$4 -17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 71¢ $47 1h
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 58¢ $28 12h
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $28 15d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 69¢ $19 15d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes 2¢ $20 15d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 2¢ $23 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 7 history records