Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T13:53:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

41
0x41df…f174
crypto · 96 markets active 5h ago
0.0score
−$46 -37%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$44 · open −$2
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Net worth$15
Realized−$44
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses12 / 72
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions12
Markets (closed)84 / 96
History coverage72d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%
Chart Positions 12 History 84 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$8
14 days+$8
30 days+$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will a player representing Norway be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $3 $3 −$1 (-20%)
Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026? No 21¢ 44¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+107%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? Yes 35¢ 59¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+69%)
Will 2026 be the fourth-hottest year on record? Yes 10¢ $3 $2 −$2 (-54%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 +$0 (+21%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? No 46¢ 40¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-12%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? Yes 37¢ 32¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-15%)
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30? No 30¢ 23¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-23%)
SCOTUS strikes down Trump's Birthright Citizenship EO? No $1 $1 −$0 (-46%)
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-34%)
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes $0 $0 −$0 (-39%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +16%
Will a player representing Argentina be the top goalscorer at the 2026 Jun 09 $1 $0 -19%
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $1 +$8 +725%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 28 $2 $0 -14%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 30? May 27 $1 $0 -7%
Will Russia capture all of Hryshyne by May 31? May 27 $1 $0 -21%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? May 20 $1 $0 -8%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? May 18 $1 $0 +17%
Will Russia enter Huliaipilske by May 31? May 10 $1 $0 +26%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026? May 06 $1 −$1 -96%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? Apr 26 $1 −$1 -81%
Will a U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the United States occur b Apr 26 $1 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Apr 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Apr 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Apr 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Apr 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Apr 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Apr 25 $1 $0 +18%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Apr 25 $1 $0 +13%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? Apr 22 $1 $0 -22%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31? Apr 21 $1 −$1 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026? Apr 21 $1 $0 -35%
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30? Apr 19 $3 $0 -10%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? Apr 19 $1 $0 +7%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Apr 18 $3 −$1 -36%
US x Cuba military clash in 2026? Apr 18 $1 $0 +17%
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 15? Apr 16 $1 $0 +6%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30? Apr 13 $2 $0 -0%
US x Iran meeting by June 15, 2026? Apr 11 $2 −$2 -100%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Apr 08 $3 $0 +8%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Apr 08 $2 −$1 -32%
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31? Apr 08 $2 −$1 -44%
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by May 31, 2026? Apr 08 $1 $0 -42%
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by April 30, 2026? Apr 08 $1 $0 -33%
US x Iran ceasefire by December 31? Apr 08 $1 −$1 -96%
US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? Apr 08 $1 −$1 -82%
Trump out as President by April 30? Apr 06 $1 $0 -40%
Trump out as President by June 30? Apr 05 $2 $0 -19%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? Apr 05 $1 −$1 -46%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Apr 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Detroit Pistons finish as the #1 seed in the 2025–2026 NBA Ea Apr 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Will any country leave NATO by June 30, 2026? Apr 04 $1 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Apr 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Apr 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Apr 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Apr 03 $1 +$1 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Apr 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Apr 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Apr 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 40% −$5
crypto 37% −$29
other 11% −$2
sports 8% −$8
politics 4% −$2
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 46¢ $1 5h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL Yes 11¢ $1 5h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 20 SELL Yes 36¢ $0 10h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 20 SELL Yes 37¢ $0 10h
Will 2026 be the fourth-hottest year on record? SELL Yes $0 30h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY Yes $1 2d
Will a player representing Argentina be the top goalscorer at the 2026 SELL Yes $1 3d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 20 BUY Yes 37¢ $1 3d
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? BUY Yes 35¢ $1 3d
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30? BUY No 30¢ $1 4d
Will a player representing Norway be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FI BUY Yes $1 4d
Will a player representing Norway be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FI BUY Yes $1 4d
Will a player representing Norway be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FI BUY Yes 11¢ $1 4d
Will a player representing Argentina be the top goalscorer at the 2026 BUY Yes $1 5d
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 10d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $1 14d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 15d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 30? SELL Yes 20¢ $1 15d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 30? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 15d
Will Russia capture all of Hryshyne by May 31? SELL No 53¢ $1 15d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes $0 20d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? SELL Yes 51¢ $0 22d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes $1 23d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? SELL Yes 50¢ $1 24d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? SELL Yes 50¢ $0 24d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $1 24d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL No 37¢ $1 24d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 31¢ $1 32d
Will Russia enter Huliaipilske by May 31? SELL No 40¢ $1 32d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026? SELL Yes $0 37d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-48.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +240.9% +208.4% 67% 67% +206.3%
≤30d 8 +86.3% +68.5% 38% 38% +58.4%
≤90d 84 -42.7% -48.2% 14% 11% -46.9%
all 84 -42.7% -48.2% 14% 11% -46.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -48.2% 11% -46.9%
10% -53.1% 5% -51.9%
15% -57.6% 4% -56.6%
20% -61.8% 4% -60.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14.59 · official $14.59 (match) · 287 history records