Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T18:23:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
41 0x41de…b3c0 politics 124 markets active 2h ago coverage 118d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$6 (-0%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate7%9W / 114L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$256per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% −$17
politics 37% −$15
crypto 5% −$2
sports 5% +$24
economics 2% −$1
tech 1% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-6.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 16 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 104 -3.2% -12.4% 2% 2% -9.7%
all 123 +3.4% -6.4% 7% 7% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.4% 7% -9.6%
10% -15.4% 5% -18.2%
15% -23.6% 5% -26.1%
20% -31.1% 4% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +7% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$1 · ×11.55 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

118d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses9 / 114
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)123 / 124
History coverage118d
Avg bet$256
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 123 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $38 $38 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 23 $37 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 20 $648 −$1 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $23 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 11 $31 $0 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 10 $30 $0 -0%
Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 09 $35 $0 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 08 $318 $0 -0%
Will Ed Davey be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026 Jun 07 $35 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $279 −$1 -0%
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec Jun 06 $28 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Jun 06 $39 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $26 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $956 −$1 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 30 $28 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 28 $260 $0 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 28 $489 −$1 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina May 24 $432 −$1 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $264 $0 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? May 24 $513 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 24 $235 $0 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $487 −$1 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $421 −$1 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 20 $220 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 20 $217 $0 -0%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 18 $192 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 17 $238 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $499 −$1 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 17 $195 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? May 13 $203 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 13 $205 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 11 $199 $0 -0%
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026? May 09 $247 $0 -0%
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 07 $219 $0 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 07 $249 $0 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? May 06 $224 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 06 $214 $0 -0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 04 $281 −$1 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 03 $195 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 03 $551 −$1 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 03 $223 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 02 $249 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 02 $255 $0 -0%
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 01 $211 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $527 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 30 $284 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 22 $265 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 22 $536 −$1 -0%
Will Juan Daniel Oviedo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Apr 20 $202 $0 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 20 $250 $0 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 19 $472 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $38 1h
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $37 1h
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $37 2d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $43 3d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $43 4d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $23 9d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $23 9d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $31 12d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $31 12d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $30 13d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $30 13d
Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $35 13d
Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $35 13d
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $23 15d
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $23 15d
Will Ed Davey be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026 SELL No 100¢ $35 15d
Will Ed Davey be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026 BUY No 100¢ $35 16d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $27 16d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $27 16d
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec SELL No 100¢ $28 16d
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec BUY No 100¢ $28 17d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem SELL No 100¢ $39 17d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem BUY No 100¢ $39 17d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $26 17d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $26 17d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $39 23d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $39 23d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $28 23d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $28 24d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $260 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.98 · official $37.98 (match) · 356 history records