Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T12:45:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
41 0x41da…f8e8 crypto 355 markets active 1h ago coverage 239d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$3,027 (-24%) realized −$3,013 · open −$14
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -31% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate19%67W / 285L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day4.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$44now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$775
7 days−$1,343
14 days+$292
30 days+$292
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$3,344
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-37.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -72.6% -75.2% 10% 10% -70.2%
≤30d 42 +7.7% -2.6% 36% 36% -2.9%
≤90d 71 -23.0% -30.4% 25% 25% -12.4%
all 352 -31.0% -37.6% 19% 18% -36.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -37.6% 18% -36.4%
10% -43.6% 18% -42.5%
15% -49.0% 15% -48.0%
20% -54.0% 14% -53.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -31% · $-wt -27% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -51% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$77 vs −$30 · ×2.58 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

239d coverage
Net worth$44
Realized−$3,013
Unrealized−$14
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses67 / 285
Open positions3
Markets (closed)352 / 355
History coverage239d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day4.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 352 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? Yes 8¢ 11¢ $20 $26 +$6 (+29%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 21? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $18 $10 −$8 (-46%)
Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 June 15-21? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $20 $8 −$12 (-60%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 210 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $13 +$9 +66%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 8-14? Jun 14 $27 −$27 -98%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $18 −$15 -86%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in June? Jun 14 $629 −$430 -68%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,100 in June? Jun 14 $496 −$299 -60%
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $13 −$12 -96%
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 June 8-14? Jun 11 $99 −$89 -90%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $18 −$16 -94%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $16 −$15 -94%
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $29 −$27 -94%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $68 −$64 -95%
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $30 −$29 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $29 −$27 -94%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,550 on June 10? Jun 10 $17 −$17 -95%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 on June 9? Jun 10 $28 −$26 -94%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 9? Jun 10 $53 −$38 -72%
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $26 +$15 +59%
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? Jun 08 $327 −$171 -52%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $26 −$17 -66%
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $43 −$38 -88%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $10 −$9 -81%
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $84 −$81 -95%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $103 −$33 -32%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 1-7? Jun 07 $584 +$553 +95%
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $15 +$4 +26%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $65 −$45 -69%
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $225 −$134 -60%
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $55 −$53 -96%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $80 +$220 +273%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 1-7? Jun 05 $104 +$131 +126%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $23 −$21 -94%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,700 June 1-7? Jun 05 $44 +$228 +522%
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $15 −$14 -94%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 June 1-7? Jun 04 $102 +$43 +42%
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 on June 3? Jun 04 $106 +$420 +398%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $112 +$143 +127%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 June 1-7? Jun 03 $135 +$160 +119%
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 June 1-7? Jun 02 $9 +$10 +105%
Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $43 +$75 +173%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $12 +$7 +59%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $41 −$24 -57%
Will Bitcoin dip to $71,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $11 +$46 +409%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 April 6-12? Apr 11 $13 −$12 -93%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,900 April 6-12? Apr 11 $32 −$31 -95%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,700 April 6-12? Apr 07 $48 −$33 -68%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,900 March 30-April 5? Apr 01 $2 −$2 -94%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on April 1? Apr 01 $62 −$62 -99%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on April 4? Apr 01 $15 −$13 -88%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on March 31? Mar 31 $15 −$14 -93%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on April 1? Mar 31 $14 −$13 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 June 15-21? BUY Yes 3¢ $21 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? SELL Yes 66¢ $21 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 21? BUY Yes 3¢ $4 12h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 21? BUY Yes 3¢ $15 13h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 37¢ $13 13h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 8¢ $21 13h
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 8-14? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 13h
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 14? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 13h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in June? SELL Yes 1¢ $39 13h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,100 in June? SELL Yes 2¢ $21 13h
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 14? BUY Yes 6¢ $18 16h
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 14? BUY Yes 34¢ $13 16h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in June? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 23h
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 8-14? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 8-14? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 8-14? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 8-14? BUY Yes 5¢ $9 3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 8-14? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 8-14? BUY Yes 5¢ $4 3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 8-14? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 8-14? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 3d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in June? SELL Yes 1¢ $25 3d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,100 in June? SELL Yes 2¢ $22 3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 June 8-14? SELL Yes 2¢ $10 3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 11? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 11? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 11? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 11? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 11? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 11? BUY Yes 11¢ $7 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $43.69 · official $39.21 · 1128 history records