Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:56:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
41 0x41d8…effa sports 17 markets active 2h ago coverage 519d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$443 (-4%) realized −$443 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate50%8W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$654per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$20now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$130
7 days−$1,543
14 days−$1,543
30 days−$1,543
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 55% +$1,060
other 25% +$109
sports 20% −$1,639
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-13.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -25.4% -32.5% 25% 0% -41.2%
≤30d 4 -25.4% -32.5% 25% 0% -41.2%
≤90d 6 -17.3% -25.2% 33% 17% -16.3%
all 16 -4.8% -13.9% 50% 38% -13.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.9% 38% -13.4%
10% -22.1% 25% -21.7%
15% -29.7% 12% -29.2%
20% -36.6% 0% -36.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 67% · top 2 83% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% too few recent
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$177 vs −$236 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

519d coverage
Net worth$20
Realized−$443
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses8 / 8
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)16 / 17
History coverage519d
Avg bet$654
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31? No 77¢ 78¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $51 −$2 -4%
Will Senegal win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $2,106 +$132 +6%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $1,651 −$1,651 -100%
Will Austria win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $603 −$22 -4%
Internet Access restored in Iran by June 30, 2026? Apr 18 $500 −$115 -23%
US forces enter Iran by December 31? Apr 04 $4,595 +$945 +21%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 2? Mar 02 $225 +$9 +4%
Will Hassan Khomeini be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 01 $235 −$10 -4%
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? Feb 28 $505 +$231 +46%
UFC 322: Makhachev vs. Della Maddalena (Welterweight, Main Card) Nov 16 $117 +$41 +35%
Dvalishvili vs. Sandhagen Oct 06 $94 +$23 +25%
Ankalaev vs. Pereira Oct 03 $98 −$4 -4%
Pereira vs. Ankalaev Mar 10 $30 −$30 -100%
Du Plessis vs. Strickland Feb 09 $50 +$25 +49%
Makhachev vs. Tsarukyan Jan 19 $148 −$54 -36%
Makhachev vs. Moicano Jan 19 $90 +$11 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 29¢ $49 1h
Will Senegal win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 96¢ $2,239 14h
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 29¢ $51 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 81¢ $646 3d
Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31? BUY No 77¢ $20 3d
Will Senegal win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 90¢ $602 3d
Will Austria win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 80¢ $581 4d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 81¢ $1,006 4d
Will Austria win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 82¢ $603 6d
Will Senegal win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 90¢ $1,504 7d
Internet Access restored in Iran by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 49¢ $385 59d
Internet Access restored in Iran by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 64¢ $500 60d
US forces enter Iran by December 31? SELL Yes 88¢ $5,541 73d
US forces enter Iran by December 31? BUY Yes 71¢ $300 76d
US forces enter Iran by December 31? BUY Yes 75¢ $998 79d
US forces enter Iran by December 31? BUY Yes 75¢ $998 79d
US forces enter Iran by December 31? BUY Yes 75¢ $1,268 80d
US forces enter Iran by December 31? BUY Yes 65¢ $298 80d
US forces enter Iran by December 31? BUY Yes 69¢ $734 81d
US x Iran ceasefire by March 2? SELL No 100¢ $234 106d
US x Iran ceasefire by March 2? BUY No 96¢ $225 108d
Will Hassan Khomeini be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? SELL No 79¢ $225 108d
Will Hassan Khomeini be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? BUY No 83¢ $235 108d
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $736 109d
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? BUY Yes 69¢ $348 109d
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? BUY Yes 67¢ $157 109d
UFC 322: Makhachev vs. Della Maddalena (Welterweight, Main Card) SELL Makhachev 100¢ $158 213d
UFC 322: Makhachev vs. Della Maddalena (Welterweight, Main Card) BUY Makhachev 74¢ $117 214d
Dvalishvili vs. Sandhagen BUY Dvalishvili 80¢ $94 257d
Ankalaev vs. Pereira SELL Ankalaev 67¢ $94 257d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $20.13 · official $20.13 (match) · 44 history records