Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T12:51:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
41 0x41d7…c640 sports 87 markets active 0h ago coverage 24d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,527 (+4%) realized +$1,517 · open +$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate85%68W / 12L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown42%max
Avg bet$413per market
Trades / day10.0pace
Fees−$177est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$685now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$113
7 days+$256
14 days+$735
30 days+$1,379
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$1,386
other 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -2.1% -11.4% 89% 21% -7.1%
≤30d 80 +1.0% -8.6% 85% 36% -6.0%
≤90d 80 +1.0% -8.6% 85% 36% -6.0%
all 80 +1.0% -8.6% 85% 36% -6.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.6% 36% -6.0%
10% -17.3% 19% -15.0%
15% -25.3% 9% -23.2%
20% -32.6% 4% -30.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
57% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$48 vs −$156 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.74 per $1 lost it wins $1.74
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$685
Realized+$1,517
Unrealized+$10
Win rate (resolved)85%
Wins / losses68 / 12
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$177
Open positions7
Markets (closed)80 / 87
History coverage24d
Avg bet$413
Trades / day10.0
Drawdown42%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 80 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Over 95¢ 100¢ $329 $345 +$17 (+5%)
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Over 99¢ 100¢ $137 $138 +$2 (+1%)
Game Handicap: T1.A (-1.5) vs Dplus KIA Challengers (+1.5) Dplus KIA Challengers 99¢ 100¢ $104 $105 +$1 (+1%)
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China Closed Qualifier Playoffs Yakult Brothers 79¢ 69¢ $100 $88 −$12 (-12%)
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 3 Winner KT Rolster Challengers 66¢ 100¢ $4 $6 +$2 (+52%)
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner Dplus KIA Challengers 82¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+22%)
Game Handicap: DK.C (-2.5) vs T1 Academy (+2.5) Dplus KIA Challengers 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-85%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 2 Winne Jun 18 $201 +$12 +6%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast Jun 17 $617 +$87 +14%
Figueira Da Foz: Martyna Kubka vs Aliona Falei Jun 16 $36 $0 +1%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 16 $112 +$13 +12%
Parma: Oriol Roca Batalla vs Francesco Passaro Jun 16 $463 +$19 +4%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 16 $195 −$195 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 16 $2,262 +$68 +3%
Game Handicap: SGW (-1.5) vs Top Esports Challenger (+1.5) Jun 15 $50 $0 +1%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $112 +$1 +1%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $2,435 +$24 +1%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $1,069 +$87 +8%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $51 +$28 +54%
LoL: Solary vs G2 NORD - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $16 +$1 +6%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOS - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $100 +$1 +1%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $1,008 +$74 +7%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $101 −$101 -100%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $400 +$120 +30%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $200 +$15 +7%
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs CTBC Flying Oyster Academy - Game 1 Win Jun 12 $100 +$2 +2%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 2 Winner Jun 09 $43 +$2 +5%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming Junior vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 09 $501 +$24 +5%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 08 $1,207 +$275 +23%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON - Game 3 Winner Jun 08 $101 −$85 -84%
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs paiN Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $101 −$98 -96%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $422 −$422 -100%
LoL: Team Secret Whales vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - LCP Playoffs Jun 07 $255 +$36 +14%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 4 Winner Jun 07 $1,631 +$440 +27%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $300 +$6 +2%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $201 +$23 +11%
LoL: FURIA Esports vs LOS - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $101 +$9 +9%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Team Liquid - Game 4 Winner Jun 06 $102 +$33 +33%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $302 +$93 +31%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $101 +$9 +8%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION - Game 3 Winner Jun 06 $201 +$46 +23%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 06 $101 +$60 +59%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $389 +$12 +3%
LoL: Barça eSports vs ⁠Movistar KOI Fénix - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $301 +$52 +17%
LoL: Barça eSports vs ⁠Movistar KOI Fénix - Game 1 Winner Jun 05 $200 +$17 +8%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 05 $207 +$13 +6%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $202 +$74 +37%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 05 $501 +$32 +6%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Yandex (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 04 $315 +$45 +14%
LoL: ⁠Movistar KOI Fénix vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 3 Winner Jun 04 $501 +$42 +8%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Barça eSports - Game 3 Winner Jun 04 $302 −$302 -100%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 04 $275 +$41 +15%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Barça eSports - Game 4 Winner Jun 03 $437 +$171 +39%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Barça eSports - Game 2 Winner Jun 03 $114 −$46 -40%
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 03 $201 +$37 +18%
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 03 $107 +$7 +6%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 02 $102 +$11 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Yakult Brothers 79¢ $101 8m
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 3 Winne BUY KT Rolster Challengers 66¢ $4 33m
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 99¢ $137 1h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 2 Winne SELL KT Rolster Challengers 93¢ $39 1h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 2 Winne SELL KT Rolster Challengers 90¢ $33 1h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 2 Winne SELL KT Rolster Challengers 90¢ $32 1h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 2 Winne BUY KT Rolster Challengers 87¢ $100 1h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 2 Winne SELL KT Rolster Challengers 90¢ $19 1h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 2 Winne SELL KT Rolster Challengers 89¢ $89 1h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 2 Winne BUY KT Rolster Challengers 82¢ $101 1h
Game Handicap: DK.C (-2.5) vs T1 Academy (+2.5) BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 0¢ $1 3h
Game Handicap: T1.A (-1.5) vs Dplus KIA Challengers (+1.5) BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 99¢ $104 3h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner SELL Dplus KIA Challengers 88¢ $106 3h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 82¢ $101 3h
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 99¢ $5 5h
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 95¢ $324 5h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast SELL Dplus KIA Challengers 98¢ $705 27h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 74¢ $202 28h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 92¢ $8 28h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 92¢ $5 28h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 92¢ $18 28h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 92¢ $385 28h
Figueira Da Foz: Martyna Kubka vs Aliona Falei BUY Martyna Kubka 99¢ $36 42h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY Team Vitality 89¢ $112 43h
Parma: Oriol Roca Batalla vs Francesco Passaro BUY Oriol Roca Batalla 96¢ $87 2d
Parma: Oriol Roca Batalla vs Francesco Passaro BUY Oriol Roca Batalla 96¢ $20 2d
Parma: Oriol Roca Batalla vs Francesco Passaro BUY Oriol Roca Batalla 96¢ $7 2d
Parma: Oriol Roca Batalla vs Francesco Passaro BUY Oriol Roca Batalla 96¢ $38 2d
Parma: Oriol Roca Batalla vs Francesco Passaro BUY Oriol Roca Batalla 96¢ $35 2d
Parma: Oriol Roca Batalla vs Francesco Passaro BUY Oriol Roca Batalla 96¢ $29 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $684.70 · official $684.71 (match) · 285 history records