Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T03:53:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

41
0x41d6…ef29
weather · 1157 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$114 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$117 · open +$4
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$493
Realized−$117
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses1083 / 78
Open positions14
Markets (closed)1161 / 1157
History coverage68d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day24.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 14 History 1161 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days+$44
14 days+$68
30 days−$76
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on June 4? No 96¢ 100¢ $50 $52 +$2 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C or higher on June 13? No 96¢ 99¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 31°C on June 13? No 95¢ 98¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 30°C on June 13? No 97¢ 98¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 13? No 96¢ 94¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 13? No 97¢ 95¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on June 12? No 96¢ 100¢ $25 $26 +$1 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 13? No 96¢ 98¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 13? No 96¢ 96¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 96-97°F on June 13? No 96¢ 96¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on June 13? No 96¢ 96¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C or higher on June 13? No 96¢ 96¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 13? No 96¢ 99¢ $12 $13 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 13? No 96¢ 99¢ $12 $13 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 13? No 96¢ 96¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on May 9? No 96¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on May 15? No 96¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 16? No 81¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on April 22? No 92¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on April 11? No 80¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 2, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Down 34¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Solana reach $85 on April 7? No 96¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - April 1, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Up 4¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 2, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 1, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 1, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 2, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $370 on March 31? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Palantir (PLTR) close above $146 end of March? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 2, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 1, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from March 27 to April 3, 2026? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 2, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 2, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on June 12? Jun 12 $50 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 12? Jun 12 $50 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $50 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C or higher on June 11? Jun 12 $22 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 6? Jun 12 $18 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June Jun 12 $50 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 10? Jun 12 $38 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $37 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $50 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 12? Jun 12 $37 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 9? Jun 12 $58 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 21°C on June 10? Jun 12 $50 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 8? Jun 12 $50 +$3 +6%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 11? Jun 12 $25 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 11? Jun 12 $50 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C on June 11? Jun 12 $19 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $50 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 11? Jun 11 $38 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 83°F or below on June 10? Jun 11 $50 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 10? Jun 11 $50 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on June 10? Jun 11 $50 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 86-87°F on June 10? Jun 11 $50 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 10? Jun 10 $50 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 14°C on June 10? Jun 10 $47 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C on June 10? Jun 10 $12 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 10? Jun 10 $25 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 10? Jun 10 $6 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 10? Jun 10 $50 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 10? Jun 10 $50 +$3 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 10? Jun 10 $25 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 9? Jun 09 $60 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C on June 9? Jun 09 $50 +$2 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 95% −$59
crypto 5% −$35
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 13? BUY No 96¢ $12 50m
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 31°C on June 13? BUY No 95¢ $50 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 13? BUY No 96¢ $12 3h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 13? BUY No 96¢ $4 4h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 13? BUY No 96¢ $24 4h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 13? BUY No 96¢ $22 5h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 96-97°F on June 13? BUY No 96¢ $6 5h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on June 13? BUY No 96¢ $25 5h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 96-97°F on June 13? BUY No 96¢ $19 6h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C or higher on June 13? BUY No 96¢ $1 6h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C or higher on June 13? BUY No 96¢ $24 6h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 13? BUY No 97¢ $25 7h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 13? BUY No 96¢ $13 7h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C or higher on June 13? BUY No 96¢ $50 7h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 13? BUY No 96¢ $25 8h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 30°C on June 13? BUY No 97¢ $43 8h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju BUY No 96¢ $20 8h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 13? BUY No 97¢ $25 8h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 30°C on June 13? BUY No 97¢ $7 8h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 13? BUY No 96¢ $1 9h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 13? BUY No 96¢ $24 9h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju BUY No 96¢ $5 17h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 12? BUY No 97¢ $37 29h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 12? BUY No 97¢ $26 30h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 12? BUY No 97¢ $12 30h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on June 12? BUY No 97¢ $50 31h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 12? BUY No 97¢ $50 32h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C or higher on June 12? BUY No 98¢ $50 34h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 11? BUY No 96¢ $50 37h
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 11? BUY No 97¢ $25 38h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 68 -24.0% -31.3% 74% 0% -7.6%
≤30d 467 -4.5% -13.6% 91% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 1161 -2.4% -11.7% 93% 4% -9.9%
all 1161 -2.4% -11.7% 93% 4% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover24.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.7% 4% -9.9%
10% ← realistic here -20.1% 0% -18.6%
15% -27.9% 0% -26.4%
20% -34.9% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $493.35 · official $493.24 (match) · 3500 history records