Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T00:57:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

41
0x41d6…5a26
crypto · 902 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$555 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$555 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1
Realized−$555
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses374 / 530
Open positions0
Markets (closed)904 / 902
History coverage4d
Avg bet$44
Trades / day605.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 0 History 904 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$136
7 days−$555
14 days−$555
30 days−$555
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ethereum Up or Down - May 23, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Down 75¢ 100¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+33%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Up 70¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+43%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - May 23, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 +67%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 14 $55 −$5 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 13 $37 +$13 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 13 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 13 $38 +$12 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 13 $36 +$14 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 13 $67 −$17 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 13 $7 +$43 +625%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 13 $59 −$9 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 13 $47 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 13 $25 +$25 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 13 $38 +$12 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 13 $38 +$12 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 13 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 13 $33 +$17 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 13 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 13 $32 +$18 +56%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 13 $26 +$24 +93%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +32%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 13 $14 +$6 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 13 $27 +$23 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 13 $34 +$16 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 13 $29 +$21 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 13 $38 +$12 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 13 $34 +$16 +46%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 12 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 12 $37 +$13 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 12 $38 +$12 +31%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 12 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 12 $24 −$6 -27%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 12 $25 −$5 -19%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 12 $29 +$21 +71%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 12 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 12 $25 −$25 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 12 $11 +$9 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 12 $14 −$14 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 12 $14 −$5 -39%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 12 $45 +$5 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 12 $68 −$18 -27%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 12 $22 −$2 -7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 12 $23 −$3 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 12 $60 −$10 -17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% −$555
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $19 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $36 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $36 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $28 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $38 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $36 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $29 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $27 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $11 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $7 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $22 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $32 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $16 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $31 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $25 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $38 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $33 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $4 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $33 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $23 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $15 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $6 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $32 13h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $4 16h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $10 16h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-16.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 904 -7.8% -16.5% 41% 31% -10.8%
≤30d 904 -7.8% -16.5% 41% 31% -10.8%
≤90d 904 -7.8% -16.5% 41% 31% -10.8%
all 904 -7.8% -16.5% 41% 31% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover605.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.5% 31% -10.8%
10% ← realistic here -24.5% 24% -19.3%
15% -31.8% 16% -27.1%
20% -38.5% 10% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.84 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records