Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T01:24:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

41
0x41d5…ceca
politics · 34 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$13 -4%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$13 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 34
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)34 / 34
History coverage34d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day15.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%
Chart Positions 0 History 34 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$5
14 days−$5
30 days−$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June? Jun 14 $2 $0 -2%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $113 −$3 -2%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 13 $23 −$1 -3%
Will Base launch a token by September 30, 2026? Jun 13 $2 $0 -2%
Will Solana dip to $60 in June? Jun 12 $2 $0 -12%
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap Jun 12 $2 $0 -6%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $8 $0 -2%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June? Jun 11 $2 $0 -8%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 11 $5 $0 -3%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 10 $26 −$1 -4%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 27 $32 −$1 -3%
Ethereum all time high by December 31, 2026? May 27 $1 $0 -3%
Trump out as President before GTA VI? May 27 $1 $0 -7%
Opensea FDV above $100M one day after launch? May 27 $2 $0 -16%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,400 in May? May 27 $4 −$1 -18%
Will CS Cienciano win on 2026-05-27? May 27 $1 $0 -4%
Miami Marlins vs. Toronto Blue Jays May 27 $1 $0 -9%
Will Solana dip to $80 in May? May 27 $1 $0 -9%
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Dino Prizmic May 27 $1 $0 -3%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? May 27 $7 $0 -3%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 26 $2 $0 -6%
Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White Sox May 25 $1 $0 -21%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 25 $1 $0 -2%
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? May 25 $8 −$1 -9%
Will the highest temperature in London be 34°C on May 26? May 25 $2 $0 -10%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026? May 25 $2 $0 -9%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? May 25 $2 $0 -9%
Will Solana dip to $60 by December 31, 2026? May 24 $2 $0 -7%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 23 $48 −$3 -5%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 17 $6 $0 -7%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele May 17 $4 $0 -7%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 11 $3 $0 -2%
Will Trump visit China by May 15? May 10 $3 $0 -1%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 10 $1 $0 -6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 46% −$4
politics 32% −$5
economics 9% −$1
other 6% −$1
crypto 4% −$1
sports 2% $0
finance 1% $0
weather 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June? SELL Yes 83¢ $2 45m
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June? BUY Yes 84¢ $2 46m
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 67¢ $0 51m
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 67¢ $0 51m
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 67¢ $0 51m
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 66¢ $1 54m
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 66¢ $0 55m
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 67¢ $2 57m
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 67¢ $1 58m
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 67¢ $1 58m
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 67¢ $0 58m
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 67¢ $2 1h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 66¢ $2 1h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 67¢ $1 1h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 66¢ $1 1h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 67¢ $1 1h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 66¢ $1 1h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 67¢ $1 1h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 68¢ $2 1h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 67¢ $1 2h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 68¢ $1 2h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 67¢ $1 2h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 69¢ $1 2h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 68¢ $1 2h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 67¢ $3 2h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 68¢ $1 2h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 69¢ $1 2h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 69¢ $1 2h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 68¢ $1 2h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 68¢ $1 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-15.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -4.6% -13.6% 0% 0% -12.0%
≤30d 31 -6.8% -15.7% 0% 0% -13.2%
≤90d 34 -6.5% -15.4% 0% 0% -13.2%
all 34 -6.5% -15.4% 0% 0% -13.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover15.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.4% 0% -13.2%
10% -23.5% 0% -21.5%
15% -30.9% 0% -29.1%
20% -37.7% 0% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 538 history records