Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:14:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
41 0x41d0…3a74 politics 78 markets active 1h ago coverage 370d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$11 (-0%) realized −$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate8%6W / 70L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$84per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$71now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 38% −$5
other 32% −$2
sports 17% −$1
culture 6% $0
economics 5% $0
crypto 1% −$2
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-13.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -4.9% -13.9% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 5 -2.0% -11.3% 20% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 5 -2.0% -11.3% 20% 0% -9.7%
all 76 -4.9% -13.9% 8% 1% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.9% 1% -9.7%
10% -22.2% 0% -18.3%
15% -29.7% 0% -26.2%
20% -36.6% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 55% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.07 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

370d coverage
Net worth$71
Realized−$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses6 / 70
Open positions2
Markets (closed)76 / 78
History coverage370d
Avg bet$84
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 76 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $71 $71 −$0 (-0%)
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $1 $0 -10%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $70 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $70 $0 -0%
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 05 $73 $0 -0%
Will Athletic Bilbao win the 2025–26 La Liga? May 21 $72 $0 +0%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 28, 2026 (ET)? Mar 05 $71 $0 +0%
Will Trump nominate Jerome Powell as the next Fed chair? Feb 24 $74 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 01 $1 $0 -33%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 01 $147 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,600 in January? Jan 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? Jan 28 $73 $0 +0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 27 $73 $0 -0%
Will Burnley win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 21 $74 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 18 $75 $0 -0%
Will Monaco win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 13 $72 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 06 $75 $0 -0%
Will Nottm Forest win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 03 $153 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 31 $77 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 31 $74 $0 +0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 29 $219 −$1 -0%
Will Union Saint-Gilloise win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 28 $147 $0 -0%
Will Trump release more Epstein files by December 22? Dec 26 $72 $0 +0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 23 $80 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 23 $74 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on December 22? Dec 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 22 $75 $0 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 21 $74 $0 -0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Dec 18 $76 $0 +0%
Will the Utah Jazz win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 15 $141 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 10 $153 $0 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 07 $76 $0 -0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 04 $74 $0 -0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 03 $67 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 01 $1 $0 -28%
Will Slavia Pragu win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 30 $76 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 26 $1 $0 -20%
Will Ajax win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 25 $76 $0 -0%
Will Espanyol win the 2025–26 La Liga? Nov 18 $73 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 16 $74 $0 -0%
Will the Tennessee Titans win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 12 $80 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win by 10-20%? Nov 08 $75 −$1 -1%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 03 $153 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 22 $151 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Browns win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 20 $231 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 18 $75 $0 -0%
Will How to Train Your Dragon be the top grossing movie of 2025? Oct 13 $151 $0 -0%
Will The Fantastic Four: First Steps be the top grossing movie of 2025 Oct 12 $78 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 07 $156 $0 -0%
Will PSV win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 04 $77 $0 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 02 $80 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $72 1h
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 4d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $69 4d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $70 6d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 6d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 8d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 8d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $69 8d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $70 10d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 10d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 11d
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $73 11d
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $73 16d
Will Athletic Bilbao win the 2025–26 La Liga? BUY No 100¢ $72 101d
Will the US next strike Iran on February 28, 2026 (ET)? BUY Yes 100¢ $71 105d
Will Trump nominate Jerome Powell as the next Fed chair? SELL No 100¢ $74 112d
Will Trump nominate Jerome Powell as the next Fed chair? BUY No 100¢ $74 123d
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 135d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $72 135d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $72 137d
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 137d
Will Ethereum reach $4,600 in January? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 139d
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 139d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? SELL No 100¢ $73 139d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? BUY No 100¢ $73 140d
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 140d
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 140d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $72 140d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 100¢ $73 145d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $71.49 · official $71.49 (match) · 320 history records