Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T22:10:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
41 0x41ce…9917 sports 69 markets active 1h ago coverage 317d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$178 (-12%) realized −$177 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%27W / 40L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$59now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$25
7 days+$92
14 days+$6
30 days−$52
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 84% −$157
other 15% −$32
crypto 1% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-21.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 +13.0% +2.2% 55% 55% +6.8%
≤30d 47 -15.0% -23.1% 40% 40% -13.8%
≤90d 53 -6.4% -15.3% 43% 43% -14.9%
all 67 -13.5% -21.7% 40% 40% -22.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.7% 40% -22.5%
10% -29.2% 40% -29.9%
15% -36.1% 36% -36.7%
20% -42.3% 36% -42.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -23% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$18 · ×1.08 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

317d coverage
Net worth$59
Realized−$177
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses27 / 40
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions2
Markets (closed)67 / 69
History coverage317d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 67 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Under 46¢ 46¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. Doosan Bears Lotte Giants 46¢ 46¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 36 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance Jun 29 $41 +$50 +123%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 27 $20 −$20 -98%
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $61 −$5 -9%
Panama vs. England: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $30 −$30 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Rafael Fiziev vs. Manuel Torres (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 27 $41 +$39 +97%
UFC Fight Night: Michel Pereira vs. Shara Magomedov (Middleweight, Mai Jun 27 $10 −$10 -98%
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $15 −$15 -98%
Spread: Senegal (-3.5) Jun 26 $30 +$24 +78%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 26 $20 +$21 +101%
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $20 −$20 -99%
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $15 +$14 +90%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Tunisia O/U 0.5 Jun 26 $15 +$15 +101%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $30 +$31 +101%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $51 −$50 -99%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Canada O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $18 −$18 -99%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $20 +$13 +62%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $20 +$19 +93%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $20 +$22 +109%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $20 +$23 +114%
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $30 −$30 -98%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $20 +$20 +97%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $41 −$20 -49%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 21 $15 −$15 -99%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $30 +$27 +90%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 20 $20 +$28 +140%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $20 +$21 +105%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $20 −$10 -52%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $18 −$7 -41%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $30 −$30 -99%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $30 −$30 -99%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $30 −$30 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $24 −$24 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $46 +$43 +95%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $8 +$2 +22%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $23 +$15 +64%
Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs T1 (+1.5) Jun 14 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $9 −$9 -99%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $41 −$40 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $31 +$50 +165%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 07 $10 −$10 -99%
UFC Fight Night: Brendan Allen vs. Edmen Shahbazyan (Middleweight, Mai Jun 06 $10 −$10 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main Jun 06 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $51 −$50 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Arnold Allen vs. Melquizael Costa (Featherweight, Mai May 17 $14 +$12 +82%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. Doosan Bears BUY Lotte Giants 46¢ $30 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $30 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance SELL Brazil 100¢ $91 3h
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance BUY Brazil 44¢ $41 4h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 44¢ $20 47h
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 48¢ $56 47h
Panama vs. England: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $30 2d
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 51¢ $30 2d
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 51¢ $30 2d
UFC Fight Night: Rafael Fiziev vs. Manuel Torres (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Rafael Fiziev 100¢ $80 2d
UFC Fight Night: Michel Pereira vs. Shara Magomedov (Middleweight, Mai BUY Michel Pereira 25¢ $10 2d
UFC Fight Night: Rafael Fiziev vs. Manuel Torres (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Rafael Fiziev 50¢ $41 2d
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $15 2d
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $20 3d
Spread: Senegal (-3.5) BUY Senegal 56¢ $10 3d
Spread: Senegal (-3.5) BUY Senegal 55¢ $20 3d
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 49¢ $20 3d
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Tunisia O/U 0.5 BUY Over 49¢ $15 3d
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $15 3d
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 100¢ $61 4d
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 49¢ $30 4d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 51¢ $30 4d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 54¢ $20 4d
Switzerland vs. Canada: Canada O/U 0.5 BUY Under 56¢ $18 5d
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 26¢ $10 5d
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $33 5d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 100¢ $39 5d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 51¢ $20 5d
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 61¢ $20 5d
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $43 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $59.35 · official $56.74 · 107 history records