Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T17:46:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
41 0x41ce…6509 sports 476 markets active 1h ago coverage 206d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$3,317 (+4%) realized +$4,213 · open −$896
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate48%224W / 238L
Whale WR89%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$183per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$467est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$3,354now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$257
7 days+$1,542
14 days+$2,115
30 days+$3,048
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 66% +$2,119
other 30% +$2,316
crypto 1% −$1,224
economics 1% +$121
politics 1% −$158
world 1% −$152
tech 0% −$200
finance 0% +$278
weather 0% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-13.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +82.5% +65.1% 75% 75% +28.2%
≤30d 26 +69.6% +53.4% 73% 73% +33.6%
≤90d 189 +10.8% +0.3% 53% 53% +3.0%
all 462 -4.4% -13.5% 48% 48% -5.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.5% 48% -5.1%
10% -21.8% 47% -14.2%
15% -29.4% 46% -22.5%
20% -36.3% 44% -30.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 89% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -14% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$173 vs −$146 · ×1.18 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.11 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

206d coverage
Net worth$3,354
Realized+$4,213
Unrealized−$896
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses224 / 238
Whale WR (big bets)89%
Est. fees paid−$467
Open positions11
Markets (closed)462 / 476
History coverage206d
Avg bet$183
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 462 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes 71¢ 80¢ $1,000 $1,121 +$121 (+12%)
Spread: France (-1.5) Norway 62¢ 54¢ $500 $431 −$69 (-14%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Yes 58¢ 58¢ $400 $403 +$3 (+1%)
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) Senegal 60¢ 60¢ $300 $298 −$2 (-1%)
Will Lighter reach $4 before 2027? Yes 69¢ 17¢ $1,200 $296 −$904 (-75%)
Will France win on 2026-06-26? No 38¢ 30¢ $250 $201 −$49 (-20%)
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 80¢ 65¢ $200 $162 −$38 (-19%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 24¢ 32¢ $100 $131 +$31 (+31%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 19¢ $100 $114 +$14 (+14%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $100 $107 +$7 (+7%)
Will Lighter reach $3 before 2027? Yes 33¢ 30¢ $100 $89 −$11 (-11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 235 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $203 −$200 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $304 +$296 +97%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $102 +$161 +158%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? Jun 24 $205 −$200 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $254 +$218 +86%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $506 +$288 +57%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $102 +$131 +129%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 23 $203 +$148 +73%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $303 +$173 +57%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $102 +$255 +250%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $761 +$390 +51%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $252 −$250 -99%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $10 +$67 +650%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $202 +$106 +52%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $102 −$100 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $101 +$60 +60%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $51 +$134 +262%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) AND Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 16 $153 +$225 +147%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $508 +$603 +119%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $303 +$180 +60%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $506 −$500 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 16? Jun 15 $21 −$20 -96%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $508 +$556 +109%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $100 +$22 +22%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $506 +$356 +70%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 25 $203 −$200 -98%
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 25 $500 −$189 -38%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $101 +$91 +90%
Spread: Brighton & Hove Albion FC (-1.5) May 25 $202 +$74 +37%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $203 +$149 +73%
Spread: FC Bayern München (-2.5) May 24 $204 +$441 +216%
Spread: FC Bayern München (-1.5) May 24 $508 +$492 +97%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 24 $508 +$603 +119%
Will Middlesbrough FC win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $304 −$300 -99%
Hull City AFC vs. Middlesbrough FC: Both Teams to Score May 23 $203 −$200 -98%
Spread: Knicks (-6.5) May 21 $507 −$500 -99%
Will Valencia CF win on 2026-05-14? May 21 $202 +$137 +67%
Spread: Real Madrid CF (-1.5) May 21 $202 +$137 +67%
Will Trump say "Ship" or "Chip" during events with Xi Jinping? May 21 $204 +$192 +94%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 21 $505 +$252 +50%
Spread: Cavaliers (-3.5) May 14 $203 −$200 -99%
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2026-05-14? May 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Trump say "Taiwan" or "Tibet" during events with Xi Jinping? May 14 $103 −$100 -97%
Will Trump say "Soybean" during events with Xi Jinping? May 14 $133 −$130 -97%
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during events with Xi May 14 $203 −$200 -98%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? May 14 $204 −$200 -98%
Spread: Cavaliers (-3.5) May 14 $254 +$237 +93%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 14 $204 +$309 +152%
Spread: Manchester City FC (-2.5) May 14 $204 +$402 +197%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) BUY Senegal 60¢ $304 1h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY Norway 62¢ $506 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 58¢ $405 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 38¢ $255 14h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 47¢ $203 14h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 38¢ $102 24h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 17¢ $205 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? AND BUY 21¢ $102 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 53¢ $254 2d
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 57¢ $203 4d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 63¢ $506 4d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 50¢ $304 4d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 28¢ $102 4d
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) AND Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Spai BUY 25¢ $358 5d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $252 5d
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 24¢ $102 5d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) SELL Spain 53¢ $395 5d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 49¢ $254 5d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 50¢ $508 6d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 43¢ $102 6d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 63¢ $303 6d
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 80¢ $201 6d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 13¢ $10 6d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $202 6d
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $102 6d
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) AND Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) AND Spread: Czech BUY 37¢ $408 8d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $51 8d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 62¢ $101 8d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $51 8d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 60¢ $506 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,353.78 · official $3,350.75 (match) · 804 history records