Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T14:46:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

41
0x41ce…64c9
crypto · 59 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$854 -26%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$857 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$857
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses25 / 34
Open positions0
Markets (closed)59 / 59
History coverage333d
Avg bet$56
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%
Chart Positions 0 History 59 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9
7 days+$189
14 days+$189
30 days+$184
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 14? Jun 14 $17 +$8 +49%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $11 +$2 +16%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $338 +$180 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET May 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on May 20? May 20 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down on March 29? Apr 09 $39 −$39 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down on March 29? Apr 09 $43 −$43 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on March 28? Mar 28 $85 +$74 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down on March 20? Mar 19 $120 −$33 -27%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Mar 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on February 26? Feb 25 $47 −$9 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down on February 22? Feb 22 $107 −$70 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down on February 21? Feb 21 $76 −$22 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down on January 30? Jan 30 $97 +$39 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down on January 22? Jan 23 $259 −$259 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down on January 7? Jan 07 $19 −$17 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down on January 7? Jan 07 $140 −$114 -81%
XRP Up or Down on January 7? Jan 07 $22 −$21 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 7, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jan 07 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Oct 30 $121 −$121 -100%
No change in Fed interest rates after October 2025 meeting? Oct 30 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Oct 01 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on September 30? Oct 01 $132 −$132 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 2PM ET Aug 17 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 10AM ET Aug 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 7AM ET Aug 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 16, 10AM ET Aug 16 $21 +$7 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 16, 9AM ET Aug 16 $31 +$13 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 15, 7PM ET Aug 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 24, 11PM ET Aug 15 $104 +$34 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 24, 10PM ET Aug 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin above $120,000 on July 25? Aug 15 $166 −$166 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on July 25? Jul 25 $168 −$141 -84%
Ethereum above $3,600 on July 25? Jul 25 $39 −$33 -85%
Will Bitcoin reach $125K in July? Jul 25 $135 +$22 +16%
Will Bitcoin reach $130K in July? Jul 25 $116 −$20 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 25, 3AM ET Jul 25 $12 +$20 +160%
Will Bitcoin reach $200K in July? Jul 25 $2 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 24, 11AM ET Jul 24 $8 +$3 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 24, 10AM ET Jul 24 $2 +$7 +272%
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 24, 6AM ET Jul 24 $36 $0 -1%
Ethereum Up or Down on July 24? Jul 24 $20 +$100 +500%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in July? Jul 24 $16 +$9 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down on July 24? Jul 24 $61 +$125 +205%
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 4PM ET Jul 21 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 8AM ET Jul 21 $43 +$17 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 6PM ET Jul 21 $85 −$85 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down on July 17? Jul 21 $3 −$1 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 5PM ET Jul 20 $46 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 96% −$737
economics 4% −$120
other 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 14? SELL Up 59¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 14? BUY Up 37¢ $5 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 14? BUY Up 39¢ $6 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 14? BUY Up 39¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 14? BUY Up 39¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 14? BUY Up 40¢ $4 22h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 13? SELL No 27¢ $12 24h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 13? BUY No 21¢ $11 24h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 6¢ $9 25h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 11? SELL Up 53¢ $0 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 11? SELL Up 55¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 11? SELL Up 55¢ $28 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 11? SELL Up 55¢ $0 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 11? SELL Up 55¢ $0 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 11? SELL Up 55¢ $22 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 11? SELL Up 50¢ $124 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 11? SELL Up 48¢ $317 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 11? SELL Up 48¢ $22 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 11? BUY Up 30¢ $0 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 11? BUY Up 30¢ $16 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 11? BUY Up 31¢ $35 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 11? BUY Up 31¢ $0 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 11? BUY Up 31¢ $81 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 11? BUY Up 31¢ $0 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 11? BUY Up 31¢ $0 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 11? BUY Up 31¢ $31 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 11? BUY Up 31¢ $38 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 11? BUY Up 33¢ $17 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 11? BUY Up 33¢ $33 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-13.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +27.2% +15.1% 75% 75% +36.0%
≤30d 6 +1.9% -7.8% 67% 50% +34.1%
≤90d 11 -20.8% -28.4% 45% 36% +6.7%
all 59 -4.4% -13.5% 42% 41% -32.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.5% 41% -32.9%
10% -21.8% 34% -39.4%
15% -29.4% 29% -45.2%
20% -36.3% 20% -50.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 543 history records