Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T07:42:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

41
0x41cb…a5df
politics · 542 markets active 1h ago
3.5score
+$1,608 +8%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$1,593 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP politics specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$587
Realized+$1,593
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses369 / 137
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions31
Markets (closed)506 / 542
History coverage71d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day44.4
Drawdown9%
Kalshi-fit88%
Chart Positions 31 History 506 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$72
7 days+$31
14 days+$106
30 days+$236
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? Yes 80¢ 80¢ $88 $88 +$0 (+0%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 81¢ 81¢ $49 $49 +$0 (+0%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Yes 91¢ 90¢ $36 $36 −$0 (-0%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Yes 90¢ 90¢ $36 $36 +$0 (+0%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $35 $33 −$2 (-6%)
Will Germany be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? No 76¢ 76¢ $31 $31 +$0 (+0%)
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 45¢ 44¢ $32 $30 −$1 (-3%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? No 91¢ 98¢ $27 $29 +$2 (+7%)
Will Germany be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? No 96¢ 97¢ $28 $29 +$0 (+1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Yes 94¢ 94¢ $28 $28 +$0 (+0%)
Will Russia capture Lyman by June 30, 2026? No 90¢ 94¢ $24 $25 +$1 (+4%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 66¢ 66¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 90¢ 89¢ $18 $18 −$0 (-1%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $17 $18 +$0 (+2%)
Will Belgium be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? No 70¢ 75¢ $14 $15 +$1 (+7%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 69¢ 70¢ $14 $14 +$0 (+2%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-0%)
Will Trump say "Six Seven" this week? No 76¢ 80¢ $10 $10 +$1 (+6%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 81¢ 81¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? No 93¢ 96¢ $9 $10 +$0 (+4%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Will Trump dance during UFC Freedom 250? Yes 64¢ 55¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-14%)
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Yes 48¢ 48¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? AND Will United Jun 13 $5 +$33 +638%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 +$5 +104%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $8 +$22 +263%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $4 +$6 +178%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $14 +$6 +45%
Mexico to score first vs. South Africa? Jun 11 $7 +$3 +37%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? Jun 10 $91 −$3 -3%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30? Jun 10 $80 −$20 -25%
Will Nigeria win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $4 −$4 -99%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $125 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12PM ET Jun 09 $9 −$1 -16%
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by June 30? Jun 08 $2 −$1 -34%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? Jun 07 $18 $0 +1%
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $239 +$24 +10%
Will Trump say "Six Seven" in June? Jun 07 $2 +$3 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7PM ET Jun 07 $2 +$3 +108%
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 06 $198 −$49 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5PM ET Jun 06 $11 +$9 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6PM ET Jun 06 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Trump say "Death Tax" during Wisconsin events? Jun 05 $10 +$1 +11%
Will Trump say "Affordable" or "Affordability" in June? Jun 05 $24 +$7 +30%
Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 5+ times during co Jun 04 $8 +$2 +18%
Will Trump say "Coal" 5+ times during coal announcement? Jun 04 $5 $0 +8%
Will Trump say "Beautiful" 5+ times during coal announcement? Jun 04 $18 +$2 +10%
Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in June? Jun 04 $25 +$9 +35%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 04 $64 +$7 +11%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in June? Jun 03 $54 +$6 +12%
Will Trump say "Trump Derangement Syndrome" in June? Jun 03 $15 +$5 +32%
Will Dr. Oz say "Trump Account" during the press briefing? Jun 03 $19 +$1 +3%
Will Dr. Oz say "Cuba" or "Cuban" during the press briefing? Jun 03 $14 +$1 +5%
Will Dr. Oz say "Pete" or "Hegseth" during the press briefing? Jun 03 $28 +$2 +6%
Will Dr. Oz say "No Tax" during the press briefing? Jun 03 $5 $0 +7%
Nothing Ever Happens: May Jun 03 $78 +$7 +8%
Will Dr. Oz say "Stock" or "Market" during the press briefing? Jun 03 $8 $0 +3%
Will Dr. Oz say "Commander In Chief" during the press briefing? Jun 03 $7 $0 +3%
Will Trump say "No No No" this week? Jun 02 $9 +$1 +11%
Will Trump say "Interest rate" this week? Jun 02 $6 +$1 +18%
Will Trump say "Make America Great Again" this week? Jun 02 $38 +$4 +12%
Will Trump say "Whale" in May? Jun 02 $3 +$2 +52%
Will Trump say "Uranium" this week? Jun 01 $34 +$1 +2%
Will Trump say "Six Seven" this week? Jun 01 $9 +$1 +11%
Will Trump say "Nuke" in May? Jun 01 $15 +$3 +22%
Will Trump say "Deer" in May? Jun 01 $9 +$1 +10%
Will Trump say "Pig" in May? Jun 01 $52 +$15 +29%
Will Trump say "Christmas" in May? Jun 01 $9 +$3 +32%
Will Trump say "Barack Hussein Obamacare" in May? Jun 01 $55 +$5 +10%
Will Trump say "Wolf" in May? Jun 01 $7 +$1 +10%
Will Trump say "Big Bang" in May? Jun 01 $9 +$1 +6%
Will Trump say "Mosquito" in May? Jun 01 $9 +$1 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 43% +$879
crypto 30% −$48
world 16% +$487
other 6% +$136
finance 4% +$68
sports 1% +$64
tech 0% +$4
economics 0% +$5
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $5 47m
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $10 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? AND W BUY 28¢ $5 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? BUY Yes 79¢ $16 12h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? BUY No 93¢ $9 13h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $8 14h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $4 14h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 14h
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? BUY Yes 85¢ $8 14h
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? BUY Yes 86¢ $10 14h
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? BUY Yes 86¢ $15 14h
Will Germany be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $10 14h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? A BUY 31¢ $10 16h
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 16h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 17h
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 55¢ $6 17h
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? BUY Yes 77¢ $38 18h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $8 19h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $6 19h
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $3 20h
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? AND Will United BUY 13¢ $5 20h
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $3 29h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $14 35h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 49¢ $5 37h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $7 37h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06- BUY 14¢ $10 38h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? AND Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND W BUY 25¢ $20 39h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? AND W BUY 31¢ $20 39h
Mexico to score first vs. South Africa? BUY Yes 73¢ $7 39h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)+3.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 +55.3% +40.5% 60% 45% -5.4%
≤30d 154 +19.6% +8.2% 72% 44% -4.5%
≤90d 506 +14.1% +3.3% 73% 47% -2.0%
all 506 +14.1% +3.3% 73% 47% -2.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover44.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +3.3% 47% -2.0%
10% ← realistic here -6.6% 33% -11.4%
15% -15.6% 20% -19.9%
20% -23.9% 13% -27.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $587.44 · official $652.50 · 3500 history records