Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:05:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
41 0x41c7…1514 other 208 markets active 9h ago coverage 94d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$119 (-8%) realized −$119 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate82%142W / 31L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$106now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$16
7 days−$50
14 days−$50
30 days−$166
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 28% +$19
crypto 25% −$120
other 17% −$50
politics 14% +$8
weather 7% +$1
sports 6% +$10
tech 1% $0
economics 1% −$1
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 -2.8% -12.0% 67% 19% -37.0%
≤30d 90 -4.2% -13.3% 73% 18% -33.5%
≤90d 173 +0.2% -9.3% 82% 17% -18.1%
all 173 +0.2% -9.3% 82% 17% -18.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 17% -18.1%
10% -18.0% 12% -26.0%
15% -25.9% 6% -33.1%
20% -33.2% 5% -39.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
79% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$6 · ×0.07 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.33 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

94d coverage
Net worth$106
Realized−$119
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses142 / 31
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions35
Markets (closed)173 / 208
History coverage94d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 35 History 173 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Hantavirus lab leak confirmed by June 30? No 98¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? No 97¢ 99¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+3%)
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? No 96¢ 98¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+2%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $8,000 by end of June? No 99¢ 100¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+1%)
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No 99¢ 100¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+1%)
Will Trump be impeached by June 30? No 98¢ 100¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+1%)
Xi Jinping out by June 30? No 97¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? Yes 70¢ 70¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+0%)
Xi Jinping divorce before 2027? No 98¢ 98¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-0%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? No 95¢ 98¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+3%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Yes 75¢ 100¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+33%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+9%)
Jimmy Lai released by June 30? No 93¢ 99¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+6%)
Will Trump and Putin not meet? Yes 97¢ 98¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 91¢ 89¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Another Elon baby by June 30? No 90¢ 96¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+6%)
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Yes 48¢ 50¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
100% tariff on Canada in effect by June 30? No 94¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 95¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of 2026? No 98¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 81¢ 81¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Donald Trump be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? No 99¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $19 $0 -0%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $2 +$1 +32%
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 2 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $10 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 15 $41 −$41 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2 $0 +8%
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 3 Tunisia? Jun 15 $1 $0 +3%
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 2 Tunisia? Jun 15 $1 $0 +4%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +122%
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 1 Tunisia? Jun 15 $1 $0 +38%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 15 $2 +$1 +56%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $1 $0 +1%
Spread: Qatar (-1.5) Jun 14 $1 $0 +1%
Exact Score: Qatar 2 - 1 Switzerland? Jun 14 $1 $0 +1%
Exact Score: Qatar 2 - 0 Switzerland? Jun 14 $5 $0 -0%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Exact Score: United States 0 - 3 Paraguay? Jun 13 $1 $0 +0%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $1 +$2 +205%
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-2.5) Jun 12 $1 $0 +3%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Canada O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $1 $0 +24%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $2 $0 +7%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $2 +$1 +30%
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $3 $0 +2%
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 3 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Will SpaceX IPO by September 30, 2026? Jun 12 $8 $0 +1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 12 $1 $0 +31%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 3 South Africa? Jun 12 $1 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 2 South Africa? Jun 12 $1 $0 +1%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 4.5 Jun 12 $1 $0 +2%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 $0 +2%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $1 $0 +9%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 0 - 3 Czechia? Jun 12 $2 $0 +1%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 3 South Africa? Jun 12 $5 $0 -0%
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 1 South Africa? Jun 12 $5 $0 -0%
Mexico vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $5 $0 -0%
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 3 South Africa? Jun 12 $5 $0 -0%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $1 $0 -2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $1 $0 +1%
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on June 4? Jun 04 $1 $0 +2%
Will Trump speak to Kim Jong Un in May? Jun 04 $1 $0 +4%
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on June 3? Jun 03 $2 $0 +9%
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on June 2? Jun 03 $1 $0 +14%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult J.D. Vance by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $1 $0 +2%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? Jun 02 $8 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 9h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $1 9h
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 9h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 9h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 9h
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? BUY Yes 70¢ $5 11h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $19 11h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 35h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 35h
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 35h
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 39h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 75¢ $2 2d
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 2 Cabo Verde? BUY No 99¢ $10 2d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 45¢ $41 2d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 44¢ $1 2d
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 1 Tunisia? SELL No 99¢ $1 2d
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 1 Tunisia? BUY No 70¢ $1 2d
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 3 Tunisia? BUY No 97¢ $1 2d
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 2 Tunisia? BUY No 95¢ $1 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 92¢ $2 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 99¢ $2 3d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 99¢ $5 3d
Exact Score: Qatar 2 - 0 Switzerland? BUY No 100¢ $5 4d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 99¢ $1 4d
Spread: Qatar (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 99¢ $1 4d
Exact Score: Qatar 2 - 1 Switzerland? BUY No 98¢ $1 4d
Exact Score: United States 0 - 3 Paraguay? BUY No 99¢ $1 4d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $1 5d
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 3 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY No 99¢ $5 5d
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY No 92¢ $2 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $106.36 · official $106.40 (match) · 490 history records