Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T07:41:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
41 0x41c7…08da crypto 38 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (115 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$14 (-1%) realized −$14 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate42%16W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day115.0pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 89% −$652
sports 9% −$3
world 1% −$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (115 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-28.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 -20.5% -28.1% 42% 39% -52.9%
≤30d 38 -20.5% -28.1% 42% 39% -52.9%
≤90d 38 -20.5% -28.1% 42% 39% -52.9%
all 38 -20.5% -28.1% 42% 39% -52.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover115.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -28.1% 39% -52.9%
10% ← realistic here -35.0% 37% -57.4%
15% -41.3% 37% -61.5%
20% -47.0% 32% -65.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -48% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -48% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -45% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$40 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.23 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized−$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses16 / 22
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)38 / 38
History coverage1d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day115.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 38 Trades
no open positions (18 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 27 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 27 $110 −$110 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 27 $130 −$125 -96%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 27 $131 −$7 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 27 $32 −$31 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 27 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 27 $148 +$30 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 27 $36 −$34 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 27 $29 −$28 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 27 $78 +$38 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 27 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 27 $26 +$17 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 27 $65 −$62 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 27 $32 −$31 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 27 $16 −$8 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 27 $29 −$3 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 27 $61 +$42 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 27 $26 +$24 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 27 $155 −$150 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 27 $96 −$93 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 27 $71 −$68 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 27 $39 −$37 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 27 $26 +$15 +59%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $19 −$19 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 27 $3 +$3 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 27 $2 −$2 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 27 $2 +$3 +164%
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $5 +$5 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 27 $2 +$2 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 27 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 27 $2 +$2 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 26 $4 +$3 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 26 $5 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 26 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 26 $5 +$5 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 26 $5 +$6 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 26 $21 −$20 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $26 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $26 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $26 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $26 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $26 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $104 20m
Spread: England (-2.5) SELL England 42¢ $124 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $3 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $3 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $26 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $26 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET SELL Down 68¢ $178 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $3 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $3 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $3 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $26 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $103 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $3 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $3 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $3 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $26 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $3 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $26 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET SELL Down 81¢ $115 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.21 · official $3.88 · 123 history records