Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T22:53:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
41 0x41c5…92cd crypto 69 markets active 1h ago coverage 104d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$163 (-10%) realized −$103 · open −$60
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate41%28W / 40L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$68
7 days−$78
14 days−$170
30 days−$170
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 75% −$263
other 17% −$54
economics 7% −$4
finance 1% $0
world 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-18.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -52.4% -56.9% 36% 18% -29.9%
≤30d 17 -50.3% -55.0% 35% 24% -44.3%
≤90d 17 -50.3% -55.0% 35% 24% -44.3%
all 68 -9.8% -18.4% 41% 35% -25.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.4% 35% -25.3%
10% -26.2% 31% -32.5%
15% -33.3% 24% -39.0%
20% -39.8% 19% -45.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -40% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +16% → late -36% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$14 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

104d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$103
Unrealized−$60
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses28 / 40
Open positions1
Markets (closed)68 / 69
History coverage104d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 68 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 29¢ 0¢ $60 $0 −$60 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 15 $35 −$33 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $9 +$4 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 15 $30 −$3 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 15 $78 −$33 -42%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $207 +$6 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 10 $10 −$7 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$4 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 05 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 04 $1 +$1 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 04 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 04 $8 +$6 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 04 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 04 $53 −$51 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Mar 10 $20 −$7 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Mar 10 $26 −$17 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Mar 10 $30 +$19 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Mar 10 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Mar 10 $22 −$18 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Mar 10 $25 −$16 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Mar 10 $14 −$12 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Mar 10 $39 −$39 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Mar 10 $16 +$19 +120%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Mar 10 $21 +$12 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Mar 10 $20 +$7 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Mar 10 $44 +$31 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Mar 10 $22 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Mar 10 $22 −$2 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Mar 10 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Mar 10 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Mar 10 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Mar 10 $31 +$6 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Mar 10 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Mar 10 $10 +$13 +127%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Mar 10 $10 +$28 +275%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me Mar 10 $108 −$4 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Mar 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Mar 10 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Mar 10 $15 +$1 +4%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March? Mar 10 $5 $0 -2%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15? Mar 10 $10 −$2 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Mar 10 $48 −$48 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Mar 10 $21 +$6 +27%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? Mar 10 $6 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Mar 10 $20 +$27 +133%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Mar 09 $33 +$47 +144%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Mar 09 $30 +$3 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET SELL Down 1¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET SELL Up 80¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET SELL Down 14¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.10 · official $0.10 (match) · 352 history records