Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T03:26:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
41 0x41c5…0b24 sports 233 markets active 2h ago coverage 73d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$563 (-3%) realized −$464 · open −$99
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate50%115W / 117L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$69per market
Trades / day5.3pace
Fees−$211est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$12now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$93
7 days−$248
14 days−$194
30 days−$194
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 87% −$647
other 13% −$235
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-15.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -17.3% -25.2% 44% 44% -29.5%
≤30d 19 -10.8% -19.3% 47% 47% -24.5%
≤90d 232 -6.1% -15.1% 50% 48% -14.0%
all 232 -6.1% -15.1% 50% 48% -14.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.1% 48% -14.0%
10% -23.2% 48% -22.2%
15% -30.6% 46% -29.7%
20% -37.4% 41% -36.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -18% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$48 vs −$54 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

73d coverage
Net worth$12
Realized−$464
Unrealized−$99
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses115 / 117
Est. fees paid−$211
Open positions1
Markets (closed)232 / 233
History coverage73d
Avg bet$69
Trades / day5.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 232 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics Athletics 60¢ $111 $12 −$99 (-89%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 32 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Jun 20 $66 +$46 +70%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $31 +$34 +109%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 19 $100 −$99 -99%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $76 −$75 -99%
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 17 $51 +$51 +101%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Lo Jun 17 $56 +$44 +79%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $46 −$45 -99%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $35 −$35 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $96 −$95 -99%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $51 +$45 +90%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $70 −$69 -99%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $51 −$50 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $76 +$50 +66%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 14 $56 −$55 -99%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $96 +$81 +85%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $51 +$45 +89%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $49 −$48 -99%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $76 −$75 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $51 +$54 +106%
Golden Knights vs. Ducks May 14 $64 −$63 -99%
Spread: Pistons (-3.5) May 14 $101 −$35 -35%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 6.5 May 14 $159 −$157 -99%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 5.5 May 14 $172 −$13 -8%
Wild vs. Avalanche May 14 $51 −$33 -66%
Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White Sox May 14 $51 +$7 +13%
New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles May 13 $240 −$237 -99%
Spread: Spurs (-8.5) May 13 $71 +$52 +73%
Will Kilmarnock FC win on 2026-05-12? May 12 $101 +$87 +86%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Coco Gauff vs Mirra Andreeva May 12 $76 +$55 +73%
Avalanche vs. Wild May 12 $51 +$56 +110%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Cleveland Guardians May 11 $101 +$64 +63%
New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles May 11 $101 −$100 -99%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Coco Gauff vs Iva Jovic May 11 $25 +$24 +96%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $76 +$51 +67%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 10 $105 +$72 +68%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $100 +$4 +4%
UFC 328: Tatsuro Taira vs. Joshua Van (Flyweight, Main Card) May 10 $171 −$170 -99%
UFC 328: Alexander Volkov vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta (Heavyweight, Main C May 10 $101 +$33 +33%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 09 $102 −$100 -98%
Knicks vs. 76ers May 09 $51 +$51 +101%
Will Everton FC win on 2026-05-10? May 09 $33 −$32 -98%
Houston Astros vs. Cincinnati Reds May 08 $51 −$50 -99%
Lakers vs. Thunder: O/U 209.5 May 08 $51 +$40 +79%
Hurricanes vs. Flyers May 08 $51 +$27 +54%
Spread: Pistons (-3.5) May 07 $51 −$50 -98%
Crystal Palace FC vs. FK Shakhtar Donetsk: Both Teams to Score May 07 $51 +$47 +93%
Elche CF vs. Deportivo Alavés: O/U 2.5 May 07 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-09? May 07 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-09? May 07 $51 −$50 -99%
Atlanta Braves vs. Seattle Mariners May 06 $25 −$25 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 60¢ $112 1h
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) SELL New York Yankees 100¢ $112 1h
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) BUY New York Yankees 58¢ $66 4h
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Milwaukee Brewers 60¢ $100 7h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 47¢ $31 7h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $76 36h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $46 2d
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Lo BUY No 55¢ $56 2d
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Over 49¢ $51 2d
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 53¢ $35 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $96 4d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 64¢ $70 5d
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Over 54¢ $51 5d
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Over 52¢ $51 5d
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car SELL Diego Lopes 99¢ $126 5d
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 59¢ $76 5d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 51¢ $56 5d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) SELL Germany 94¢ $177 5d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 50¢ $96 5d
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays SELL New York Yankees 100¢ $96 6d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $49 6d
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY New York Yankees 52¢ $51 6d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 60¢ $76 6d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 99¢ $105 7d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $51 7d
Golden Knights vs. Ducks BUY Ducks 51¢ $64 36d
Spread: Pistons (-3.5) SELL Pistons 66¢ $64 37d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 56¢ $159 37d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 43¢ $159 37d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 45¢ $172 37d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11.98 · official $13.82 · 491 history records