Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:06:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
41 0x41c1…c33c crypto 18 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (92 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$2,246 (+16%) realized +$2,246 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate56%10W / 8L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown47%max
Avg bet$760per market
Trades / day92.0pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% +$2,189
crypto 48% +$1,103
sports 1% −$100
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (92 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +24.3% +12.5% 56% 50% +13.4%
≤30d 18 +24.3% +12.5% 56% 50% +13.4%
≤90d 18 +24.3% +12.5% 56% 50% +13.4%
all 18 +24.3% +12.5% 56% 50% +13.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover92.0 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +12.5% 50% +13.4%
10% +1.7% 44% +2.6%
15% ← realistic here -8.1% 39% -7.3%
20% -17.1% 33% -16.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 55% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +25% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +24% · $-wt +25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$816) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +15% → late +34% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
4.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$567 vs −$309 · ×1.83 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.29 per $1 lost it wins $2.29
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2,246
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses10 / 8
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)18 / 18
History coverage1d
Avg bet$760
Trades / day92.0
Drawdown47%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 18 Trades
no open positions (8 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 17 $654 +$1,096 +168%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 17 $527 −$500 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 17 $211 +$122 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 17 $823 +$433 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 17 $625 +$108 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 17 $526 +$17 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 17 $937 +$1,053 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 17 $857 −$816 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 17 $642 −$610 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 17 $278 +$332 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 17 $213 −$200 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 17 $210 −$200 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 17 $105 +$268 +255%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $355 −$15 -4%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,209 −$33 -3%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $103 −$100 -97%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,009 +$229 +23%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $4,398 +$2,008 +46%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $27 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $105 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $105 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $105 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $104 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $104 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $104 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $106 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $106 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $105 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $105 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $105 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $103 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $103 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $106 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $87 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET SELL Up 57¢ $666 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET SELL Up 55¢ $512 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET SELL Up 37¢ $60 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET SELL Up 42¢ $422 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET SELL Up 40¢ $115 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $105 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 98 history records