trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 8 | +55.5% | +40.7% | 62% | 50% | +23.7% |
| ≤30d | 8 | +55.5% | +40.7% | 62% | 50% | +23.7% |
| ≤90d | 8 | +55.5% | +40.7% | 62% | 50% | +23.7% |
| all | 20 | -3.1% | -12.4% | 40% | 35% | -40.5% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -12.4% | 35% | -40.5% |
| 10% | -20.7% | 35% | -46.2% |
| 15% | -28.4% | 35% | -51.4% |
| 20% | -35.4% | 35% | -56.1% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? | Yes | 6¢ | 6¢ | $52 | $53 | +$1 (+1%) |
| Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 8¢ | 8¢ | $50 | $50 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Will Mexico be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup? | Yes | 12¢ | 8¢ | $40 | $26 | −$14 (-36%) |
| Will Mexico be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? | Yes | 15¢ | 16¢ | $2 | $2 | +$0 (+5%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? | Jun 23 | $135 | +$307 | +226% |
| England vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score | Jun 23 | $356 | −$231 | -65% |
| Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Uzbekistan O/U 0.5 | Jun 23 | $67 | −$52 | -78% |
| Uruguay leading at halftime? | Jun 22 | $66 | +$70 | +105% |
| Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? | Jun 22 | $89 | +$203 | +226% |
| Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5 | Jun 21 | $91 | +$7 | +8% |
| Germany leading at halftime? | Jun 20 | $183 | +$164 | +90% |
| United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score | Jun 19 | $98 | −$67 | -69% |
| Backpack FDV above $700M one day after launch? | Mar 16 | $100 | −$50 | -50% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? | Dec 10 | $7 | −$7 | -100% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after May 2025 meeting? | Nov 09 | $515 | −$515 | -100% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after July 2025 meeting? | Nov 09 | $100 | −$100 | -100% |
| Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by July 31? | Nov 09 | $200 | −$200 | -100% |
| Will Ethereum reach $5800 in August? | Nov 09 | $999 | −$999 | -100% |
| Bitcoin above $97,000 on December 27? | Jan 04 | $152 | +$188 | +123% |
| Ethereum above $3,900 on December 20? | Dec 21 | $133 | +$218 | +163% |
| Bitcoin above $100,000 on December 13? | Dec 16 | $131 | −$131 | -100% |
| Will Bitcoin hit $100k again by Sunday? | Dec 09 | $249 | +$142 | +57% |
| Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Dec 06 | $101 | −$101 | -100% |
| LayerZero airdrop in 2023? | Nov 06 | $203 | −$203 | -100% |