Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:46:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
41 0x41c0…901d sports 14 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$344 (+3%) realized +$420 · open −$76
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate42%5W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$746per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Fees−$166est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$1,024now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% +$380
other 3% −$177
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)+1.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +11.7% +1.1% 42% 42% -6.8%
≤30d 12 +11.7% +1.1% 42% 42% -6.8%
≤90d 12 +11.7% +1.1% 42% 42% -6.8%
all 12 +11.7% +1.1% 42% 42% -6.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.1% 42% -6.8%
10% -8.6% 42% -15.7%
15% -17.4% 42% -23.8%
20% -25.5% 42% -31.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 62% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -70% → late +93% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1,120 vs −$760 · ×1.47 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$1,024
Realized+$420
Unrealized−$76
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses5 / 7
Est. fees paid−$166
Open positions2
Markets (closed)12 / 14
History coverage4d
Avg bet$746
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Under 48¢ 44¢ $1,000 $927 −$73 (-7%)
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 0 Jordan? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $100 $96 −$4 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $1,172 +$1,184 +101%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $478 +$696 +146%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $1,015 −$1,000 -98%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 15 $864 +$2,263 +262%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $1,014 −$1,000 -99%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $182 +$454 +250%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $1,217 +$1,006 +83%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $992 −$973 -98%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $1,094 −$1,077 -98%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $177 −$173 -98%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $1,017 −$1,000 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 0 Jordan? BUY Yes 14¢ $103 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 48¢ $1,016 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $1,172 5h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 40¢ $478 10h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY No 49¢ $1,015 10h
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) SELL Sweden 100¢ $3,126 2d
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) BUY Sweden 27¢ $864 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 52¢ $1,014 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $182 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $1,217 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 35¢ $992 2d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $78 3d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $1,016 3d
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $102 3d
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 15¢ $177 4d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $1,017 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,023.51 · official $1,023.51 (match) · 21 history records