Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:10:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
41 0x41be…5f38 crypto 195 markets active 1h ago coverage 132d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$397 (-4%) realized −$403 · open +$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +6% what you keep after slip
Net edge+6%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate54%105W / 89L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$52per market
Trades / day4.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$13now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$177
7 days+$305
14 days+$581
30 days+$292
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% +$358
crypto 41% −$1,164
world 8% +$99
finance 2% −$8
tech 2% +$46
politics 1% −$28
sports 0% −$2
economics 0% −$22
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)+9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +3.7% -6.2% 50% 33% +37.4%
≤30d 28 +53.9% +39.3% 46% 36% +3.9%
≤90d 182 +20.7% +9.2% 53% 40% -18.7%
all 194 +21.4% +9.9% 54% 41% -17.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +9.9% 41% -17.8%
10% -0.7% 28% -25.7%
15% -10.3% 21% -32.8%
20% -19.1% 14% -39.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +21% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late +54% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$30 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

132d coverage
Net worth$13
Realized−$403
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses105 / 89
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)194 / 195
History coverage132d
Avg bet$52
Trades / day4.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 194 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 24¢ 44¢ $7 $13 +$6 (+78%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $383 −$177 -46%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $11 −$11 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $16 −$1 -4%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $4 +$3 +66%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 13 $316 +$4 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $307 +$487 +158%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $48 −$10 -20%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 07 $141 +$42 +30%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $149 +$243 +163%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 04 $0 +$1 +414%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 02 $102 +$10 +10%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 01 $167 −$6 -4%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 01 $53 −$9 -18%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 31 $181 −$79 -44%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 29 $187 −$76 -41%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 28 $233 −$113 -48%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 25 $20 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 25 $30 +$62 +209%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 25 $51 +$14 +28%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 24 $14 −$5 -39%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 24 $140 −$6 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET May 21 $5 −$5 -94%
Will Elon Musk post 780-799 tweets in May 2026? May 21 $39 +$6 +14%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 21 $19 −$1 -7%
Will Elon Musk post 760-779 tweets in May 2026? May 21 $32 −$8 -26%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 19 $62 +$22 +36%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 19 $194 −$94 -48%
Trump out as President by June 30? May 19 $5 $0 +2%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? May 17 $5 $0 +3%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 17 $5 +$3 +51%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026? May 17 $10 −$1 -7%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect May 17 $7 $0 -5%
Predict.fun FDV above $200M one day after launch? May 17 $1 $0 -37%
Netanyahu out by June 30? May 17 $1 $0 -48%
Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by June 30? May 17 $1 $0 +11%
Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? May 17 $2 $0 -2%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 17 $102 −$34 -34%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 16 $71 +$79 +111%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 16 $56 +$25 +45%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 16 $246 −$40 -16%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 16 $16 −$7 -46%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 16 $8 −$5 -68%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 15 $190 −$146 -77%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 14 $25 −$19 -77%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 14 $22 −$21 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 13 $98 +$209 +213%
Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record? May 13 $22 +$1 +3%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? May 13 $65 +$9 +14%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 12 $22 −$13 -61%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 11 $50 −$8 -17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 43¢ $219 1h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 47¢ $96 34h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $29 35h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $38 35h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $16 35h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $14 35h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $35 35h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $9 36h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $11 2d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 67¢ $15 2d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 67¢ $16 2d
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $7 2d
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 3d
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 3d
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 3d
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 3d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 22¢ $30 3d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 22¢ $80 3d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $70 3d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 25¢ $36 3d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $10 3d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $10 3d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $83 3d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $138 4d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $9 5d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $7 5d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $3 5d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $14 5d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $3 5d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $0 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12.83 · official $12.83 (match) · 724 history records