Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T12:52:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
41 0x41bb…6302 sports 175 markets active 1h ago coverage 98d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$389 (-1%) realized −$378 · open −$11
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate47%81W / 90L
Whale WR59%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$320per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$595est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$1,491now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$877
7 days−$691
14 days−$3,406
30 days−$5,581
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 83% −$125
other 17% −$703
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-14.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -11.6% -20.0% 45% 45% -24.5%
≤30d 72 -25.2% -32.3% 39% 39% -26.1%
≤90d 163 -5.6% -14.6% 47% 46% -11.0%
all 171 -5.7% -14.6% 47% 47% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.6% 47% -10.9%
10% -22.8% 47% -19.4%
15% -30.3% 44% -27.2%
20% -37.1% 39% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 59% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +5% → late -16% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$299 vs −$278 · ×1.07 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

98d coverage
Net worth$1,491
Realized−$378
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses81 / 90
Whale WR (big bets)59%
Est. fees paid−$595
Open positions4
Markets (closed)171 / 175
History coverage98d
Avg bet$320
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 171 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Yes 51¢ 50¢ $539 $534 −$5 (-1%)
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Yes 50¢ 50¢ $521 $516 −$5 (-1%)
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Yes 48¢ 48¢ $277 $274 −$3 (-1%)
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Yes 42¢ 42¢ $165 $167 +$2 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 66 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $719 +$756 +105%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 171.5 Jun 17 $363 −$358 -99%
Game Handicap: T1.A (-1.5) vs Nongshim Esports Academy (+1.5) Jun 17 $128 −$126 -98%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $295 +$310 +105%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $304 +$296 +97%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $347 −$341 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $165 −$162 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $173 +$149 +86%
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-3.5) Jun 14 $269 +$214 +80%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 215.5 Jun 13 $1,159 −$1,143 -99%
LoL: Misa Esports vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $288 −$285 -99%
New York Liberty vs. Atlanta Dream Jun 11 $467 −$462 -99%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 215.5 Jun 10 $847 −$835 -99%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 10 $254 −$250 -99%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 215.5 Jun 09 $1,102 +$987 +90%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 08 $302 −$298 -98%
PortlandFire vs. Los Angeles Sparks Jun 08 $563 +$223 +40%
Chicago Sky vs. Toronto Tempo: O/U 173.5 Jun 07 $355 −$351 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 215.5 Jun 05 $330 −$325 -99%
Golden State Valkyries vs. Minnesota Lynx: O/U 165.5 Jun 05 $302 +$250 +83%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 214.5 Jun 04 $327 −$322 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $1,346 −$1,332 -99%
Toronto Tempo vs. New York Liberty Jun 04 $598 +$141 +24%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Barça eSports - Game 3 Winner Jun 03 $94 +$235 +250%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Barça eSports - Game 2 Winner Jun 03 $95 −$93 -98%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Barça eSports - Game 1 Winner Jun 03 $127 −$124 -98%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Los Angeles Sparks: O/U 175.5 Jun 03 $343 −$338 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 217.5 Jun 02 $634 −$625 -99%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 168.5 Jun 01 $539 +$523 +97%
Total Kills Over/Under 28.5 in Game 2? May 31 $650 −$640 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 212.5 May 31 $860 +$740 +86%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 May 30 $283 −$280 -99%
Game Handicap: HMBLE (-2.5) vs GMBLERS ESPORTS (+2.5) May 29 $157 −$154 -98%
Total Kills Over/Under 29.5 in Game 2? May 28 $285 +$324 +114%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 219.5 May 28 $602 −$593 -98%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 May 28 $87 −$85 -98%
Phoenix Mercury vs. New York Liberty May 28 $618 +$307 +50%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 27 $1,005 +$585 +58%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 216.5 May 27 $818 +$744 +91%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 May 26 $140 −$138 -98%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 216.5 May 26 $1,325 +$1,187 +90%
Dallas Wings vs. New York Liberty: O/U 178.5 May 24 $313 −$308 -98%
Total Kills Over/Under 26.5 in Game 1? May 24 $300 −$295 -98%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 219.5 May 24 $748 −$737 -98%
Total Kills Over/Under 28.5 in Game 3? May 24 $216 −$213 -98%
Total Kills Over/Under 28.5 in Game 1? May 24 $198 −$195 -98%
Counter-Strike: Atreides vs ENCE (BO3) - XPortal Playoffs May 24 $139 +$158 +114%
Total Kills Over/Under 26.5 in Game 1? May 24 $335 −$330 -99%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 214.5 May 24 $332 +$297 +90%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 213.5 May 24 $334 +$288 +86%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $281 50m
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $302 54m
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $168 1h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $226 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $313 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $234 1h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $290 25h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $429 26h
Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 171.5 BUY Over 54¢ $363 26h
Game Handicap: T1.A (-1.5) vs Nongshim Esports Academy (+1.5) BUY T1 Academy 41¢ $4 27h
Game Handicap: T1.A (-1.5) vs Nongshim Esports Academy (+1.5) BUY T1 Academy 43¢ $124 27h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 48¢ $295 47h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $304 2d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $233 2d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $114 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 35¢ $1 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 35¢ $164 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $173 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 215.5 BUY Over 52¢ $328 5d
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-3.5) BUY Minnesota Lynx 54¢ $4 5d
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-3.5) BUY Minnesota Lynx 55¢ $265 5d
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 215.5 BUY Over 51¢ $477 5d
LoL: Misa Esports vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 1 Winner BUY Misa Esports 70¢ $288 6d
New York Liberty vs. Atlanta Dream BUY Atlanta Dream 61¢ $467 7d
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 215.5 BUY Over 54¢ $355 7d
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 215.5 BUY Over 53¢ $325 7d
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY No 53¢ $254 7d
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 215.5 BUY Over 53¢ $522 7d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 50¢ $302 10d
Chicago Sky vs. Toronto Tempo: O/U 173.5 BUY Over 54¢ $66 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,490.58 · official $1,490.58 (match) · 383 history records