Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T09:37:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
41 0x41b7…65dc world 37 markets active 1h ago coverage 534d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$6 (-0%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate44%16W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$55per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$1
14 days+$0
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 28% −$1
other 25% +$5
world 24% −$2
sports 12% $0
economics 8% $0
finance 2% −$1
weather 0% −$6
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -0.3% -9.8% 33% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 16 -0.7% -10.2% 31% 0% -10.3%
≤90d 26 -0.4% -9.9% 35% 0% -9.5%
all 36 -3.8% -13.0% 44% 3% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.0% 3% -9.8%
10% -21.3% 3% -18.4%
15% -28.9% 3% -26.3%
20% -35.9% 3% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 73% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

534d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses16 / 20
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)36 / 37
History coverage534d
Avg bet$55
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Yes 14¢ 8¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-39%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 24 $34 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 23 $34 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 20 $37 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 19 $40 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 19 $35 −$1 -3%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $40 −$1 -2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 18 $11 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $32 $0 +1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $12 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $36 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 16 $35 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $62 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 14 $38 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $33 +$1 +3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $37 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 08 $36 −$4 -12%
Will France win Eurovision 2026? Apr 26 $33 $0 +1%
Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by June 30? Apr 23 $143 +$6 +4%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? Apr 21 $36 −$1 -4%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 02 $247 $0 +0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 02 $165 $0 +0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 01 $44 −$1 -1%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 01 $225 $0 -0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 31 $64 $0 -0%
Netanyahu out by April 30? Mar 30 $225 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 30 $225 $0 +0%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 06 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 World Series? Dec 06 $2 $0 +4%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jun 25 $2 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 200–224 times May 2–9? May 10 $1 $0 +1%
Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 18-24? Mar 20 $5 $0 +1%
Will Dwight Howard make the 2025 Class of the Naismith Basketball Hall Feb 24 $3 +$2 +72%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 34-35°F on January 24? Feb 03 $6 −$6 -100%
Will another individual win the Romanian Presidential election? Jan 24 $10 −$1 -9%
Will the Ravens beat the Steelers by 10 or more points? Jan 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Wolves win on 2025-01-06? Jan 07 $13 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 98¢ $34 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 98¢ $21 4h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 98¢ $13 4h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 68¢ $25 16h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 68¢ $1 16h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 68¢ $8 16h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 68¢ $34 18h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 84¢ $37 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 84¢ $37 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $5 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 74¢ $34 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 76¢ $26 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 76¢ $9 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 86¢ $39 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 88¢ $40 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $11 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $11 5d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $8 5d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $24 5d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $32 5d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 84¢ $35 6d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 83¢ $2 6d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 83¢ $32 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $12 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $12 6d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 31¢ $9 7d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 31¢ $27 7d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 31¢ $36 7d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $1 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.06 · official $0.00 (match) · 106 history records