Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T21:28:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

41
0x41b4…10da
crypto · 247 markets active 0h ago
4.5score
+$8,754 +5%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$10,592 · open −$1,839
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$7,640
Realized+$10,592
Unrealized−$1,839
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses144 / 96
Whale WR (big bets)57%
Est. fees paid−$1,885
Open positions7
Markets (closed)240 / 247
History coverage38d
Avg bet$692
Trades / day41.2
Drawdown74%
Kalshi-fit90%
Chart Positions 7 History 240 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,620
7 days+$891
14 days+$6,674
30 days+$9,450
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays New York Yankees 44¢ 34¢ $2,706 $2,077 −$629 (-23%)
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants San Francisco Giants 49¢ 48¢ $1,519 $1,504 −$16 (-1%)
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Houston Astros 47¢ 46¢ $1,551 $1,502 −$50 (-3%)
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Miami Marlins 49¢ 36¢ $1,519 $1,100 −$418 (-28%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 14? No 66¢ 36¢ $1,799 $994 −$805 (-45%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 16? Yes 56¢ 56¢ $256 $256 −$0 (-0%)
Will "Scary Movie" 2nd Weekend Box Office be greater than 17m? No 60¢ 97¢ $128 $207 +$79 (+62%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 15? Jun 13 $57 −$4 -6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 11? Jun 13 $199 −$199 -100%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 13 $1,168 −$1,168 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 13 $1,552 −$1,552 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 13 $1,528 −$1,528 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $1,560 −$1,560 -100%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 13 $2,043 +$1,557 +76%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 13 $1,172 +$920 +78%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 12 $1,543 +$65 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $180 +$82 +46%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $239 +$209 +88%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 12 $1,542 +$1,558 +101%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 10 $2,950 +$2,750 +93%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 9? Jun 10 $338 +$96 +28%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $229 −$229 -100%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 10 $1,015 −$1,015 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 10 $1,072 −$1,072 -100%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 10 $1,059 +$841 +79%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 10 $1,045 +$1,055 +101%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets Jun 10 $1,528 +$1,672 +109%
Will Michele Sodano win the 2026 Agrigento mayoral election? Jun 09 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 7? Jun 09 $229 −$229 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 6? Jun 09 $372 −$372 -100%
Washington Nationals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 09 $1,075 −$1,075 -100%
New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres Jun 09 $1,014 −$1,014 -100%
Athletics vs. Houston Astros Jun 09 $1,015 −$1,015 -100%
Athletics vs. Houston Astros Jun 09 $1,017 −$1,017 -100%
Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 09 $1,052 −$1,052 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $102 +$54 +53%
Athletics vs. Houston Astros Jun 07 $1,604 +$1,496 +93%
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 07 $1,609 +$1,691 +105%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 07 $1,589 +$1,211 +76%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 06 $1,057 +$743 +70%
Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 06 $996 −$996 -100%
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 06 $1,017 +$1,019 +100%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 06 $1,018 +$751 +74%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $60 +$22 +36%
Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 06 $1,013 +$742 +73%
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 06 $1,019 −$1,019 -100%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 06 $1,011 −$1,011 -100%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 06 $1,017 +$1,309 +129%
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 06 $1,016 +$1,112 +109%
Will Meta (META) finish week of June 1 above $610? Jun 05 $20 +$16 +82%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 7? Jun 05 $854 +$294 +34%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $175 −$145 -83%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 6? Jun 05 $756 +$444 +59%
Athletics vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 05 $10,803 −$10,803 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 7? Jun 05 $328 +$223 +68%
Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees Jun 04 $7,452 −$7,452 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $513 +$220 +43%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 68% +$7,382
crypto 20% +$2,880
other 6% −$3,659
finance 2% +$636
world 2% +$1,077
politics 2% +$632
tech 0% −$177
culture 0% −$14
weather 0% −$2
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 57¢ $58 13m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 14? BUY No 34¢ $3 26m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 14? BUY No 34¢ $5 29m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 57¢ $46 40m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 57¢ $33 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 15? SELL Yes 56¢ $53 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 14? BUY No 34¢ $13 1h
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY New York Yankees 38¢ $2 1h
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY New York Yankees 38¢ $76 1h
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY New York Yankees 38¢ $966 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 57¢ $3 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 14? BUY No 34¢ $115 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 59¢ $15 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 58¢ $3 1h
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants BUY San Francisco Giants 49¢ $1,542 1h
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Houston Astros 47¢ $1,576 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 55¢ $119 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 54¢ $6 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 55¢ $39 1h
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Miami Marlins 49¢ $1,542 1h
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY New York Yankees 48¢ $1,706 1h
Will "Scary Movie" 2nd Weekend Box Office be greater than 17m? BUY No 60¢ $118 22h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 14? BUY No 73¢ $1,553 22h
Will "Scary Movie" 2nd Weekend Box Office be greater than 17m? BUY No 58¢ $4 22h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins BUY Minnesota Twins 56¢ $2,043 22h
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY New York Yankees 48¢ $1,560 22h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 51¢ $1,552 22h
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets BUY Atlanta Braves 47¢ $1,528 22h
Will "Scary Movie" 2nd Weekend Box Office be greater than 17m? BUY No 58¢ $9 22h
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox SELL Chicago White Sox 51¢ $1,608 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 -14.8% -22.9% 47% 44% -7.2%
≤30d 210 -0.6% -10.1% 58% 53% -4.0%
≤90d 240 +0.5% -9.1% 60% 55% -3.6%
all 240 +0.5% -9.1% 60% 55% -3.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover41.2 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.1% 55% -3.6%
10% -17.8% 47% -12.8%
15% ← realistic here -25.8% 36% -21.2%
20% -33.0% 25% -29.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7,639.75 · official $7,585.30 (match) · 1721 history records