Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T19:13:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

41
0x41b4…51fd
sports · 319 markets active 2h ago
4.5score
+$255 +6%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$252 · open −$8
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$42
Realized+$252
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses152 / 164
Est. fees paid−$21
Open positions3
Markets (closed)316 / 319
History coverage194d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown61%
Kalshi-fit98%
Chart Positions 3 History 316 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs FUT Esports 49¢ 66¢ $20 $26 +$7 (+34%)
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Natus Vincere 56¢ 40¢ $22 $16 −$7 (-29%)
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-99%)
76ers vs. Hornets Hornets 71¢ 0¢ $64 $0 −$64 (-100%)
Trail Blazers vs. Grizzlies Grizzlies 24¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Legacy (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2 Legacy 40¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs M80 - Map 1 Winner FUT Esports 31¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs TheMongolz (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2 TheMongolz 30¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs 9INE (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 1 Playoffs 9INE 30¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: paiN vs Passion UA (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 1 Passion UA 61¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Monte (BO3) - BC Game Masters Championship Playoffs Monte 45¢ 0¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs Gaimin Gladiators - Map 1 Winner Liquid 49¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Wizards vs. Jazz Jazz 62¢ 0¢ $31 $0 −$31 (-100%)
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Liquid (+1.5) Liquid 44¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Spread: Thunder (-9.5) Lakers 53¢ 0¢ $26 $0 −$26 (-100%)
Thunder vs. Celtics Thunder 57¢ 0¢ $28 $0 −$28 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs Astralis (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 1 Heroic 43¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: NIP vs Liquid (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Group B NIP 54¢ 0¢ $27 $0 −$27 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Nemiga (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Europe Cup #2 Playoffs 1WIN 41¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Valorant: NRG vs Paper Rex (BO5) - VCT Masters Santiago Playoffs NRG 45¢ 0¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Liquid (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 1 M80 50¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Valorant: G2 Esports vs T1 (BO3) - VCT Masters Santiago Group Stage T1 44¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: NRG vs Monte (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 1 NRG 51¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - PGL Astana: European Closed Qualifier Playoffs 100 Thieves 59¢ 0¢ $29 $0 −$29 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Monte (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2 Monte 46¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Rio Playoffs Apr 18 $24 −$24 -99%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs Passion UA (BO3) - IEM Rio Group B Apr 15 $28 +$11 +40%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs 3DMAX (BO3) - IEM Rio Group A Apr 15 $18 +$21 +119%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs HOTU (BO3) - IEM Rio Group B Apr 15 $11 +$28 +249%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Apr 15 $30 +$19 +64%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs 3DMAX (BO3) - IEM Rio Group A Apr 15 $16 −$16 -98%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - IEM Rio Group B Apr 14 $12 −$11 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Rio Group B Apr 14 $22 −$21 -99%
Counter-Strike: RED Canids vs Gentle Mates (BO3) - IEM Rio Group A Apr 14 $21 −$21 -99%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Apr 14 $27 −$27 -99%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Liquid (+1.5) Apr 13 $13 −$13 -98%
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs BC.Game Esports (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Group S Apr 13 $28 +$22 +79%
Map Handicap: AST (-1.5) vs EYEBALLERS (+1.5) Apr 09 $35 −$35 -99%
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs BC.Game Esports (+1.5) Apr 07 $27 +$22 +83%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs B8 (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Group Stage Apr 05 $19 −$18 -98%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Group Stage Apr 04 $16 −$16 -98%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs GamerLegion - Map 1 Winner Apr 03 $30 +$19 +62%
Timberwolves vs. Pistons Apr 03 $40 +$20 +50%
Valorant: Gen.G Esports vs Global Esports - Map 2 Winner Apr 03 $27 +$23 +85%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Drama eSports - Map 1 Winner Apr 03 $5 −$5 -97%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - PGL Astana: European Closed Apr 03 $30 −$29 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs 9INE (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 1 Pl Apr 03 $15 −$15 -98%
Spread: Thunder (-9.5) Apr 02 $26 −$26 -99%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs NIP (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 1 Play Apr 02 $28 −$28 -100%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs M80 (BO3) - DraculaN Playoffs Apr 02 $30 −$30 -99%
Counter-Strike: BESTIA vs B8 (BO3) - Parken Challenger Championship Pl Apr 02 $30 −$29 -99%
Counter-Strike: BESTIA vs 3DMAX (BO3) - Parken Challenger Championship Apr 02 $21 +$38 +180%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 1 Play Apr 02 $23 −$23 -98%
Counter-Strike: ECSTATIC vs Ursa (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #19 Playoff Apr 02 $20 −$20 -98%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Alliance (BO3) - DraculaN Playoffs Apr 02 $29 −$29 -99%
Counter-Strike: 9INE vs Gentle Mates (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 1 Pl Apr 02 $33 −$33 -99%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs NIP (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 1 Pla Apr 02 $34 +$25 +73%
Spread: Spurs (-13.5) Apr 02 $36 +$33 +90%
Hawks vs. Magic Apr 02 $39 +$30 +76%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Heroic (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 1 Apr 02 $22 −$22 -98%
Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs HOTU (BO3) - PGL Astana: European Close Apr 01 $32 +$18 +55%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Monte (BO3) - DraculaN Playoffs Apr 01 $34 +$25 +73%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Alliance (BO3) - DraculaN Playoffs Apr 01 $20 +$59 +296%
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 1 Apr 01 $46 +$52 +114%
Counter-Strike: Passion UA vs Alliance (BO3) - DraculaN Playoffs Apr 01 $24 −$24 -98%
Counter-Strike: Nemiga vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl Apr 01 $35 −$35 -99%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs 9INE (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 1 Pla Apr 01 $20 −$19 -98%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs Passion UA (BO3) - DraculaN Playoffs Apr 01 $21 −$21 -98%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs Passion UA (BO3) - DraculaN Playoffs Apr 01 $23 +$26 +114%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs Sashi Esport (BO3) - DraculaN Playoffs Apr 01 $24 +$25 +101%
Cavaliers vs. Lakers Apr 01 $33 +$26 +79%
Knicks vs. Rockets Mar 31 $26 −$26 -99%
Suns vs. Magic Mar 31 $24 −$23 -98%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs Phantom (BO1) - Parken Challenger Championship G Mar 31 $19 −$19 -99%
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs Acend (BO3) - Roman Imperium Cup Playoffs Mar 30 $11 +$59 +522%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 100% +$250
other 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $8 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 56¢ $23 1h
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoff BUY FUT Esports 49¢ $20 2h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Rio Playoffs BUY Team Falcons 60¢ $24 57d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs 3DMAX (BO3) - IEM Rio Group A BUY 3DMAX 32¢ $16 60d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - IEM Rio Group B BUY Aurora Gaming 39¢ $12 60d
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs HOTU (BO3) - IEM Rio Group B BUY HOTU 28¢ $11 60d
Counter-Strike: B8 vs Passion UA (BO3) - IEM Rio Group B BUY B8 71¢ $28 61d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Rio Group B BUY Natus Vincere 54¢ $22 61d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 60¢ $30 61d
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs 3DMAX (BO3) - IEM Rio Group A BUY 3DMAX 45¢ $18 61d
Counter-Strike: RED Canids vs Gentle Mates (BO3) - IEM Rio Group A BUY Gentle Mates 69¢ $21 61d
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) BUY Vitality 68¢ $27 61d
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Liquid (+1.5) BUY Liquid 44¢ $13 62d
Map Handicap: AST (-1.5) vs EYEBALLERS (+1.5) BUY Astralis 59¢ $35 66d
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs BC.Game Esports (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Group S BUY FOKUS 55¢ $28 68d
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs B8 (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Group Stage BUY B8 27¢ $19 70d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Group Stage BUY Legacy 33¢ $16 71d
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs BC.Game Esports (+1.5) BUY TheMongolz 54¢ $27 71d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs GamerLegion - Map 1 Winner BUY G2 61¢ $30 72d
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Drama eSports - Map 1 Winner BUY Drama eSports 10¢ $5 72d
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - PGL Astana: European Closed BUY 100 Thieves 59¢ $30 72d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs 9INE (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 1 Pl BUY 9INE 30¢ $15 72d
Valorant: Gen.G Esports vs Global Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Global Esports 54¢ $27 72d
Spread: Thunder (-9.5) BUY Lakers 53¢ $26 72d
Timberwolves vs. Pistons BUY Pistons 66¢ $40 72d
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs NIP (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 1 Play BUY NIP 55¢ $8 73d
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs NIP (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 1 Play BUY NIP 55¢ $6 73d
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs NIP (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 1 Play BUY NIP 55¢ $8 73d
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs NIP (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 1 Play BUY NIP 55¢ $6 73d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-5.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 114 +6.8% -3.4% 45% 45% -4.4%
all 316 +5.0% -5.0% 48% 48% -4.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.0% 48% -4.3%
10% -14.1% 47% -13.4%
15% -22.4% 45% -21.8%
20% -30.0% 41% -29.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42.05 · official $42.05 (match) · 597 history records