Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T20:15:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

41
0x41b1…5fc0
crypto · 317 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$5,956 -18%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$5,956 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1,140
Realized−$5,956
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses222 / 553
Whale WR (big bets)20%
Open positions4
Markets (closed)775 / 317
History coverage1d
Avg bet$105
Trades / day3211.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 4 History 775 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5,956
7 days−$5,956
14 days−$5,956
30 days−$5,956
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Down 44¢ 100¢ $162 $367 +$205 (+126%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Up 64¢ 100¢ $139 $216 +$77 (+56%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Up 31¢ 100¢ $52 $167 +$115 (+222%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Up 56¢ 100¢ $70 $125 +$54 (+77%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Down 21¢ 100¢ $10 $48 +$38 (+376%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Up 47¢ 100¢ $20 $42 +$22 (+115%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Up 45¢ 100¢ $18 $41 +$22 (+120%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Down 64¢ 100¢ $20 $31 +$11 (+57%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Up 64¢ 52¢ $29 $24 −$5 (-18%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Up 56¢ 100¢ $12 $21 +$9 (+78%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Down 48¢ 48¢ $19 $19 −$0 (-1%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Up 42¢ 50¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+20%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Up 81¢ 92¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+14%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Down 60¢ 50¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-17%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Down 41¢ 50¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+22%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 20, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Up 51¢ 100¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+96%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Up 21¢ 100¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+376%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Up 51¢ 100¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+96%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Up 41¢ 100¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+144%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Up 51¢ 100¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+96%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Down 31¢ 100¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+223%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 25, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Up 31¢ 100¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+223%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Up 51¢ 100¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+96%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Up 91¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+10%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Down 51¢ 100¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+96%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 12 $162 +$205 +126%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 12 $139 +$77 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 12 $52 +$115 +222%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 12 $133 −$133 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 12 $28 −$28 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 12 $20 +$22 +115%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 12 $27 −$27 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 12 $20 +$11 +57%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 12 $12 +$9 +78%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 20, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 +96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 12 $0 +$1 +376%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 +96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 12 $0 +$1 +144%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 +96%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 12 $14 −$14 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 25, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 12 $0 +$1 +222%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 +96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 +96%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 +144%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 +41%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 +64%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 +144%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 +64%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 +23%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 +64%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 +96%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 +64%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 +23%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 23, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 +41%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 +96%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 +96%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 +64%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 +144%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 +64%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 +144%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 +27%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 +23%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 12 $49 −$49 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 23, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 +144%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 17, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 +64%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% +$981
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $2 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $6 0m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $2 0m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $0 0m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $6 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $2 2m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $4 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $3 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $4 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $4 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $4 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $2 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $3 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $4 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $4 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $4 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $2 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $6 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $6 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $6 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $6 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $5 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $3 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $7 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $6 8m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-51.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 775 -46.4% -51.5% 29% 24% -22.8%
≤30d 775 -46.4% -51.5% 29% 24% -22.8%
≤90d 775 -46.4% -51.5% 29% 24% -22.8%
all 775 -46.4% -51.5% 29% 24% -22.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover3211.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -51.5% 24% -22.8%
10% ← realistic here -56.2% 20% -30.1%
15% -60.4% 14% -36.9%
20% -64.3% 9% -43.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,139.60 · official $1,116.45 · 3500 history records