Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T11:13:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
41 0x41a8…3d3d crypto 293 markets active 1h ago coverage 374d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,462 (-11%) realized −$1,462 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate47%137W / 156L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$44per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$30
7 days+$167
14 days+$42
30 days+$34
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 87% −$1,652
other 13% +$54
economics 0% −$1
world 0% $0
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-20.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 45 +6.6% -3.5% 44% 44% +5.0%
≤30d 153 -3.4% -12.6% 47% 45% -8.6%
≤90d 195 -2.8% -12.0% 50% 46% -5.2%
all 293 -11.9% -20.3% 47% 42% -20.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.3% 42% -20.7%
10% -27.9% 40% -28.3%
15% -34.9% 38% -35.2%
20% -41.3% 36% -41.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$28 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

374d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,462
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses137 / 156
Open positions0
Markets (closed)293 / 293
History coverage374d
Avg bet$44
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 293 Trades
no open positions (129 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 26 $26 +$22 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 26 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 25 $10 +$9 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 25 $213 +$183 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 25 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 25 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 25 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 25 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 25 $10 +$8 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 24 $103 +$89 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 24 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 24 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 24 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 24 $26 +$17 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 24 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 24 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $10 +$5 +52%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $10 +$37 +365%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 23 $26 +$24 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 23 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 23 $10 +$9 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 22 $26 +$20 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 22 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 22 $10 +$9 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 22 $10 +$9 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 22 $26 +$22 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 22 $10 −$10 -96%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $10 +$20 +197%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 +$21 +206%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 21 $10 +$9 +90%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $10 +$73 +712%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 20 $10 +$8 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 19 $26 +$20 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 19 $10 +$9 +83%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $10 +$11 +105%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 +$12 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 18 $26 +$23 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $213 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $103 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $52 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $26 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $10 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $10 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $103 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $52 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $26 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $10 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $26 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $10 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $10 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $26 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $11 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $26 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $26 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 19¢ $10 5d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 5d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 33¢ $10 5d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 61¢ $10 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 695 history records