Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:05:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
41 0x41a8…ff67 sports 33 markets active 0h ago coverage 29d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$7,740 (-21%) realized −$7,740 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate48%16W / 17L
Whale WR44%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,121per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$566est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,664
7 days+$1,644
14 days−$7,365
30 days−$7,947
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 84% −$8,780
other 16% +$833
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-24.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -23.3% -30.6% 38% 38% -1.7%
≤30d 33 -17.0% -24.9% 48% 45% -29.0%
≤90d 33 -17.0% -24.9% 48% 45% -29.0%
all 33 -17.0% -24.9% 48% 45% -29.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.9% 45% -29.0%
10% -32.1% 39% -35.8%
15% -38.7% 33% -42.0%
20% -44.7% 30% -47.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 58% · top 2 76% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -24% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 44% (≥$596) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -26% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$290 vs −$740 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.37 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

29d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$7,740
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses16 / 17
Whale WR (big bets)44%
Est. fees paid−$566
Open positions0
Markets (closed)33 / 33
History coverage29d
Avg bet$1,121
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 33 Trades
no open positions (12 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5,043 +$844 +17%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 17 $1 +$1 +73%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $915 −$70 -8%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 17 $8,077 −$1,795 -22%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 16 $4,990 +$2,685 +54%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $624 −$10 -2%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $705 −$10 -1%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $1,722 −$644 -37%
Spread: Spurs (-8.5) Jun 04 $1 +$1 +57%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 216.5 Jun 04 $10,080 −$8,363 -83%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 03 $1 −$1 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 215.5 Jun 03 $1 −$1 -99%
Spread: Thunder (-3.5) May 31 $1 +$1 +93%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $1 +$1 +129%
Spread: Thunder (-6.5) May 29 $1 $0 +31%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 228.5 May 29 $1 $0 +44%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 219.5 May 29 $1 +$1 +93%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 212.5 May 29 $1 −$1 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 27 $270 +$38 +14%
Spread: Thunder (-5.5) May 27 $1 −$1 -99%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 219.5 May 27 $102 −$3 -3%
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) May 26 $95 +$97 +103%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 25 $955 −$865 -91%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 24 $587 +$339 +58%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 213.5 May 24 $11 +$3 +30%
Spread: Cavaliers (-1.5) May 24 $596 +$20 +3%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) May 23 $374 +$217 +58%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 210.5 May 22 $1,112 −$798 -72%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 19 $21 −$21 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 216.5 May 19 $688 +$391 +57%
Spread: Thunder (-5.5) May 18 $1 −$1 -99%
Spread: Thunder (-2.5) May 18 $1 −$1 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 84¢ $5,887 0m
Spread: Austria (-1.5) SELL Austria 43¢ $845 1h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 45¢ $915 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $5,043 1h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 57¢ $1 3h
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs SELL Chicago Cubs 29¢ $1,700 3h
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs SELL Chicago Cubs 77¢ $4,581 4h
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Chicago Cubs 67¢ $7,069 5h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies SELL Philadelphia Phillies 96¢ $3,817 5h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies SELL Philadelphia Phillies 97¢ $3,858 5h
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Chicago Cubs 65¢ $1,008 14h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 62¢ $4,990 15h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs $10 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 83¢ $157 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 53¢ $101 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 50¢ $1 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 46¢ $937 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 24¢ $511 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $1 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $1 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 81¢ $688 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $704 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 24¢ $1 11d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Spurs 46¢ $1,048 11d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 74¢ $1,713 11d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 78¢ $8 11d
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 216.5 SELL Over 10¢ $1,716 13d
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 216.5 BUY Over 55¢ $10,080 13d
Spread: Spurs (-8.5) BUY Knicks 63¢ $1 13d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 64¢ $1 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 91 history records