Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T12:55:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
41 0x41a5…75bb sports 307 markets active 2h ago coverage 231d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,266 (-2%) realized −$1,271 · open +$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate49%151W / 155L
Whale WR65%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$211per market
Trades / day3.7pace
Fees−$613est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$145now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$367
7 days+$1,973
14 days+$1,737
30 days+$4,536
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 87% −$1,854
other 6% +$714
culture 4% −$1,016
crypto 2% −$244
politics 1% +$605
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-4.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 +43.1% +29.4% 59% 59% +19.8%
≤30d 157 +18.0% +6.8% 55% 55% +5.2%
≤90d 234 +10.4% -0.1% 51% 50% -5.2%
all 306 +5.2% -4.8% 49% 49% -12.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.8% 49% -12.0%
10% -13.9% 47% -20.5%
15% -22.2% 42% -28.1%
20% -29.9% 35% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 65% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -7% → late +18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$160 vs −$167 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

231d coverage
Net worth$145
Realized−$1,271
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses151 / 155
Whale WR (big bets)65%
Est. fees paid−$613
Open positions1
Markets (closed)306 / 307
History coverage231d
Avg bet$211
Trades / day3.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 306 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Game Handicap: PlayTime (-1.5) vs Amaru Gaming (+1.5) Amaru Gaming 28¢ 29¢ $140 $145 +$5 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: Yangon Galacticos vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - The Inter Jun 19 $254 −$254 -100%
Dota 2: Execration vs Carstensz (BO3) - The International Southeast As Jun 19 $171 −$168 -98%
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Amaru Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 19 $102 −$102 -100%
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Amaru Gaming (BO3) - The International South A Jun 19 $203 +$148 +73%
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs (BO3) - The International South Am Jun 18 $165 +$130 +78%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $9 −$9 -100%
Game Handicap: TR (-1.5) vs Yakult Brothers (+1.5) Jun 18 $202 −$202 -100%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China Jun 18 $692 +$109 +16%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $277 +$160 +58%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $405 +$273 +67%
Dota 2: Flame Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - European Pro League Group B Jun 17 $54 +$349 +650%
Dota 2: InterActive Philippines vs Ivory (BO3) - EPL World Series Sout Jun 17 $67 −$67 -100%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $528 +$97 +18%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $117 +$83 +71%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $277 −$81 -29%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China Jun 16 $234 +$769 +328%
Dota 2: Game Master vs Grey Trac - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $102 −$102 -100%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience (BO3) - The International Chin Jun 16 $105 −$105 -100%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 16 $102 −$102 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $129 −$129 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $188 −$188 -100%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Spirit Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $222 +$78 +35%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $353 +$146 +41%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $203 −$203 -100%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Power Rangers (BO3) - European Pro League Group Jun 14 $193 +$322 +166%
Game Handicap: PR (-1.5) vs 4ikibamboni (+1.5) Jun 14 $2 +$1 +95%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $2 +$3 +134%
Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Power Rangers (BO3) - European Pro League Gr Jun 13 $80 +$170 +212%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 13 $102 +$297 +290%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $198 +$208 +105%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $254 +$278 +109%
Dota 2: MODUS vs 1p2m - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $109 +$65 +59%
Dota 2: cincai team vs Pandawa Lima (BO3) - The International Southeas Jun 12 $136 −$128 -94%
Dota 2: Cloud Dawning vs Grey Trac (BO3) - The International China Ope Jun 12 $6 +$20 +332%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $20 +$59 +291%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $201 +$83 +42%
Dota 2: Level UP vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Europe Jun 11 $80 −$80 -100%
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs Zero Tenacity (BO3) - The International Europe Op Jun 11 $205 −$205 -100%
Game Handicap: YeS (-1.5) vs Level UP (+1.5) Jun 10 $140 +$65 +46%
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs Nemiga Gaming (BO3) - The International Europe Jun 10 $78 −$1 -1%
Dota 2: Yangon Galacticos vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - The Inter Jun 10 $52 +$27 +52%
Dota 2: Nande+4 vs Noir Esports (BO3) - European Pro League Group B Jun 09 $252 −$20 -8%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Nande+4 (BO3) - European Pro League Group B Jun 08 $260 +$147 +56%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 08 $263 −$263 -100%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $95 −$95 -100%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $404 −$252 -62%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $184 +$119 +64%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $403 +$634 +157%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $446 −$445 -100%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $625 +$94 +15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Game Handicap: PlayTime (-1.5) vs Amaru Gaming (+1.5) BUY Amaru Gaming 28¢ $143 1h
Dota 2: Execration vs Carstensz (BO3) - The International Southeast As BUY Carstensz 35¢ $5 4h
Dota 2: Execration vs Carstensz (BO3) - The International Southeast As BUY Carstensz 35¢ $6 4h
Dota 2: Execration vs Carstensz (BO3) - The International Southeast As BUY Carstensz 35¢ $3 4h
Dota 2: Execration vs Carstensz (BO3) - The International Southeast As BUY Carstensz 34¢ $7 4h
Dota 2: Execration vs Carstensz (BO3) - The International Southeast As BUY Carstensz 38¢ $150 4h
Dota 2: Yangon Galacticos vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - The Inter BUY Yangon Galacticos 63¢ $254 4h
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Amaru Gaming (BO3) - The International South A SELL Amaru Gaming 100¢ $351 6h
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Amaru Gaming (BO3) - The International South A BUY Amaru Gaming 57¢ $203 6h
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Amaru Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Amaru Gaming 44¢ $102 10h
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs (BO3) - The International South Am SELL Amaru Gaming 100¢ $295 18h
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs (BO3) - The International South Am BUY Amaru Gaming 56¢ $127 22h
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs (BO3) - The International South Am BUY Amaru Gaming 56¢ $38 22h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China SELL Vici Gaming 100¢ $523 23h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner SELL Vici Gaming 100¢ $436 25h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Vici Gaming 62¢ $11 27h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Vici Gaming 62¢ $69 27h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Vici Gaming 63¢ $197 27h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China SELL Vici Gaming 52¢ $277 27h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Vici Gaming 63¢ $9 27h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Vici Gaming 65¢ $645 27h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Vici Gaming 65¢ $46 27h
Game Handicap: TR (-1.5) vs Yakult Brothers (+1.5) BUY Yakult Brothers 67¢ $39 31h
Game Handicap: TR (-1.5) vs Yakult Brothers (+1.5) BUY Yakult Brothers 67¢ $164 31h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $405 41h
Dota 2: Flame Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - European Pro League Group B SELL Flame Team 100¢ $403 41h
Dota 2: Flame Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - European Pro League Group B BUY Flame Team 13¢ $18 44h
Dota 2: Flame Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - European Pro League Group B BUY Flame Team 13¢ $14 44h
Dota 2: Flame Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - European Pro League Group B BUY Flame Team 13¢ $2 44h
Dota 2: Flame Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - European Pro League Group B BUY Flame Team 13¢ $11 44h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $145.00 · official $145.00 (match) · 1033 history records