Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:00:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
41 0x41a3…017d sports 1514 markets active 1h ago coverage 125d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 124d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$27,367 (-10%) realized −$27,425 · open +$58
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate53%848W / 753L
Whale WR58%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$176per market
Trades / day26.8pace
Fees−$1,062est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$336now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$23,933
7 days−$24,013
14 days−$23,253
30 days−$23,023
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% −$16,468
other 2% −$571
crypto 1% −$404
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-20.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 158 -66.7% -69.9% 16% 16% -86.9%
≤30d 442 -24.7% -31.8% 43% 43% -45.5%
≤90d 1135 -15.1% -23.1% 51% 49% -27.6%
all 1601 -12.6% -20.9% 53% 51% -21.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.9% 51% -21.4%
10% ← realistic here -28.5% 44% -28.9%
15% -35.4% 35% -35.8%
20% -41.7% 23% -42.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -23% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 58% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -8% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$77 vs −$141 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

125d coverage
Net worth$336
Realized−$27,425
Unrealized+$58
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses848 / 753
Whale WR (big bets)58%
Est. fees paid−$1,062
Open positions5
Markets (closed)1601 / 1514
History coverage125d ⚠
Avg bet$176
Trades / day26.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 1601 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Austria leading at halftime? Yes 50¢ 100¢ $51 $102 +$51 (+100%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Yes 70¢ 84¢ $70 $84 +$14 (+21%)
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Austria 45¢ 54¢ $45 $54 +$8 (+19%)
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Under 63¢ 49¢ $62 $48 −$14 (-22%)
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Over 51¢ 48¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 495 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Astralis (BO3) - IEM Krakow Group A Jun 17 $176 −$293 -166%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs JD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $344 −$1,301 -378%
Warriors vs. Suns: O/U 214.5 Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-01-21? Jun 17 $145 −$145 -100%
LoL: Shifters vs Los Ratones (BO1) - LEC Versus Regular Season Jun 17 $739 −$739 -100%
Liverpool FC vs. Qarabağ Ağdam FK: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Capitals vs. Oilers Jun 17 $168 −$168 -100%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs DRX (BO3) - LCK Cup Group Stage Jun 17 $100 −$346 -346%
LoL: DRX vs OKSavingsBank BRION (BO3) - LCK Cup Play-In Jun 17 $0 −$788 -584508%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Top Esports (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Jun 17 $520 −$520 -100%
Kings vs. Sabres Jun 17 $40 −$40 -100%
Arsenal FC vs. Qairat FK: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $46 −$46 -100%
Pelicans vs. Grizzlies Jun 17 $83 −$115 -138%
Spread: Celtics (-13.5) Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Wofford Terriers vs. Chattanooga Mocs Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Spread: Grizzlies (-4.5) Jun 17 $22 −$22 -100%
76ers vs. Warriors: O/U 219.5 Jun 17 $46 −$46 -100%
Fokina vs. Humbert: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
SSC Napoli vs. Chelsea FC: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
NJIT Highlanders vs. Albany Great Danes Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Aston Villa FC vs. FC Red Bull Salzburg: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs BNK FEARX (+1.5) Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Team WE - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $336 −$336 -100%
Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Knicks vs. Pistons: O/U 219.5 Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Invictus Gaming (BO3) Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $500 −$500 -100%
76ers vs. Warriors: O/U 217.5 Jun 17 $185 −$185 -100%
RB Leipzig vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $118 −$118 -100%
Warriors vs. Jazz: O/U 241.5 Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Jun 17 $500 −$500 -100%
Knicks vs. Raptors: O/U 217.5 Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Pistons vs. Pelicans Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Pistons vs. Nuggets: O/U 218.5 Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Warriors vs. Mavericks Jun 17 $65 −$65 -100%
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs CTBC Flying Oyster (BO3) - LCP Regular Seaso Jun 17 $295 −$295 -100%
Bulls vs. Pacers Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
LoL: DRX Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner Jun 17 $17 −$17 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $28 −$28 -100%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-01-31? Jun 17 $150 −$150 -100%
Massachusetts-Lowell River Hawks vs. New Hampshire Wildcats Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Lightning vs. Stars: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $40 −$40 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - BLAST Bounty Playoffs Jun 17 $185 −$185 -100%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $758 −$758 -100%
Spurs vs. Rockets: O/U 219.5 Jun 17 $274 −$274 -100%
Spread: Bulls (-2.5) Jun 17 $74 −$74 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO3) - LPL Group Perseverance Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 63¢ $63 44m
Austria leading at halftime? BUY Yes 50¢ $52 59m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $51 1h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 45¢ $46 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $71 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 60¢ $61 2h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Argentina 98¢ $100 2h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 32¢ $33 2h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 69¢ $69 2h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 69¢ $70 3h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 54¢ $56 3h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 45¢ $37 27h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 60¢ $22 31h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 2¢ $21 32h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 61¢ $101 33h
Belgium leading at halftime? BUY Yes 44¢ $102 33h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $667 34h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $67 34h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 67¢ $70 34h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner SELL Natus Vincere 99¢ $98 35h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 99¢ $450 35h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 64¢ $64 35h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 49¢ $102 36h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 11¢ $51 37h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 54¢ $112 37h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY FUT Esports 49¢ $51 37h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner SELL 9z 100¢ $204 38h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $102 38h
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) SELL 9z 100¢ $100 39h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 53¢ $110 39h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $335.80 · official $335.80 (match) · 3500 history records