Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T23:01:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

41 0x419f…72b3 sports 25 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample

! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$128 (-7%) realized −$128 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +129% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +99% what you keep after slip

Net edge+99%after slip

Net WR42%break-even

Win rate53%10W / 9L

Drawdown29%max

Avg bet$77per market

Trades / day7.7pace

Fees−$29est.

Kalshi-fit84%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +42%

net ROI/market (all)+107.5%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	19	+129.4%	+107.5%	53%	42%	+24.0%
≤30d	19	+129.4%	+107.5%	53%	42%	+24.0%
≤90d	19	+129.4%	+107.5%	53%	42%	+24.0%
all	19	+129.4%	+107.5%	53%	42%	+24.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover7.7 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+107.5%	42%	+24.0%
10%	+87.7%	42%	+12.1%
15%	+69.5%	42%	+1.3%
20%	+52.9%	37%	-8.6%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 23% · top 2 40% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +37% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

20% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +129% · $-wt +37% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +271% → late +2% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$90 vs −$28 · ×3.24 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×3.6 per $1 lost it wins $3.6

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized−$128

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)53%

Wins / losses10 / 9

Est. fees paid−$29

Open positions0

Markets (closed)19 / 25

History coverage4d

Avg bet$77

Trades / day7.7

Drawdown29%

Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 19 Trades

no open positions (9 resolved losses — in realized PnL)

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$12	−$12	-98%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 10.5 Total Corners	Jun 20	$469	+$43	+9%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 9.5 Total Corners	Jun 20	$552	+$48	+9%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil 1st Half O/U 0.5 AND Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 2n	Jun 20	$121	+$158	+131%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET	Jun 20	$5	−$5	-94%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$38	+$110	+291%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 19	$5	−$5	-97%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco 1st Half O/U 0.5	Jun 19	$51	+$42	+82%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score in First Half	Jun 19	$30	−$29	-98%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco 1st Half O/U 1.5	Jun 19	$18	−$18	-98%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 7.5 Total Corners	Jun 19	$147	−$145	-99%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners	Jun 19	$101	+$43	+43%
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners AND Switzerla	Jun 19	$74	+$203	+276%
Canada vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 3.5 Corners	Jun 18	$20	−$20	-98%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$9	−$9	-97%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Corners	Jun 18	$8	−$8	-97%
England vs. Croatia: 2nd Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners AND Portugal vs. D	Jun 17	$77	+$117	+151%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score in First Half AND Portugal vs	Jun 17	$4	+$74	+2060%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 AND Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 AND Ira	Jun 17	$17	+$64	+365%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	14¢	$12	1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 10.5 Total Corners	SELL Over	93¢	$512	1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 10.5 Total Corners	BUY Over	85¢	$469	1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 9.5 Total Corners	SELL Over	93¢	$469	1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 9.5 Total Corners	BUY Over	64¢	$327	1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 9.5 Total Corners	SELL Over	30¢	$131	2h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 9.5 Total Corners	BUY Over	50¢	$224	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET	BUY Down	1¢	$5	15h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil 1st Half O/U 0.5 AND Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 2n	BUY	42¢	$121	23h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score in First Half AND Brazil vs.	BUY	6¢	$9	23h
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 1.5 AND Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Half	BUY	16¢	$19	23h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	25¢	$38	23h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	4¢	$5	24h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco 1st Half O/U 0.5	SELL Over	100¢	$92	24h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score in First Half	BUY Yes	17¢	$30	25h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco 1st Half O/U 0.5	BUY Over	54¢	$51	25h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco 1st Half O/U 1.5	BUY Over	21¢	$18	25h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 7.5 Total Corners	BUY Over	65¢	$147	25h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners	SELL Over	88¢	$144	26h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners	BUY Over	61¢	$101	26h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Scotland O/U 3.5 Corners AND Brazil vs. Haiti: 2	BUY	18¢	$67	37h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: 1st Half O/U 1.5 AND Canada vs. Qatar: 1st	BUY	12¢	$8	2d
Canada vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 3.5 Corners	BUY Over	32¢	$20	2d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	9¢	$9	2d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 1.5 AND Canada vs. Qa	BUY	16¢	$41	2d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Corners	BUY Under	8¢	$8	2d
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners AND Switzerla	BUY	26¢	$74	2d
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score in First Half AND Portugal vs	BUY	4¢	$4	3d
England vs. Croatia: 2nd Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners AND Portugal vs. D	BUY	39¢	$77	3d
Argentina vs. Algeria: 2nd Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners AND Iraq vs. Nor	BUY	9¢	$10	4d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 37 history records