Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T17:40:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
41 0x419f…9cdc sports 240 markets active 2h ago coverage 49d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$367 (-1%) realized −$367 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate90%216W / 23L
Whale WR94%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$224per market
Trades / day13.2pace
Fees−$66est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$117
7 days−$710
14 days−$530
30 days−$613
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 90% +$386
other 10% −$814
world 0% +$1
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 -2.5% -11.8% 95% 2% -14.9%
≤30d 180 -0.1% -9.6% 97% 3% -10.7%
≤90d 239 -0.2% -9.7% 90% 5% -10.2%
all 239 -0.2% -9.7% 90% 5% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 5% -10.2%
10% -18.3% 3% -18.8%
15% -26.2% 2% -26.7%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 94% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$90 · ×0.08 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

49d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$367
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)90%
Wins / losses216 / 23
Whale WR (big bets)94%
Est. fees paid−$66
Open positions0
Markets (closed)239 / 240
History coverage49d
Avg bet$224
Trades / day13.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 239 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Set Handicap: Sonego (-1.5) vs Navone (+1.5) Jun 21 $54 $0 +1%
Set Handicap: Paul (-1.5) vs Cerundolo (+1.5) Jun 21 $245 +$2 +1%
Set Handicap: Samuel (-1.5) vs Arnaldi (+1.5) Jun 21 $10 $0 +1%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $150 −$149 -100%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $152 +$14 +10%
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) Jun 20 $160 +$5 +3%
Set Handicap: Kovackova (-1.5) vs Steur (+1.5) Jun 20 $99 +$1 +1%
Set Handicap: Aguilar/Fuente (-1.5) vs Couto/Rodrigues (+1.5) Jun 19 $5 $0 +1%
Set Handicap: Estevez (-1.5) vs Pino (+1.5) Jun 19 $147 +$1 +1%
Set Handicap: Pino (-1.5) vs Estevez (+1.5) Jun 19 $5 $0 +1%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $151 +$7 +4%
Set Handicap: Medvedev (-1.5) vs Altmaier (+1.5) Jun 19 $150 +$1 +1%
Set Handicap: Humbert (-1.5) vs Medjedovic (+1.5) Jun 19 $99 +$1 +1%
Set Handicap: Fritz (-1.5) vs Shelton (+1.5) Jun 19 $89 +$1 +1%
Set Handicap: Olmo (-1.5) vs Sobolieva (+1.5) Jun 19 $147 +$1 +1%
Spread: Qatar (-1.5) Jun 19 $144 +$2 +2%
AS FAR to score first vs. Olympic Dcheira? Jun 18 $143 +$1 +1%
Set Handicap: Shelton (-1.5) vs Quinn (+1.5) Jun 18 $142 +$1 +1%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,010 −$1,010 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 17 $48 $0 +1%
Set Handicap: Vekic (-1.5) vs Eala (+1.5) Jun 17 $80 +$1 +1%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $885 +$6 +1%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $1,168 +$10 +1%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $674 +$6 +1%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $847 +$327 +39%
Set Handicap: Gaston (-1.5) vs Gill (+1.5) Jun 16 $9 $0 +1%
Set Handicap: Bublik (-1.5) vs Bellucci (+1.5) Jun 16 $792 +$7 +1%
Set Handicap: Lahey (-1.5) vs Luescher (+1.5) Jun 16 $109 +$1 +1%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Team to Take First Corner Jun 16 $827 +$9 +1%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $129 +$1 +1%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Team to Take First Corner Jun 15 $817 +$8 +1%
Set Handicap: Starodubtseva (-1.5) vs Joint (+1.5) Jun 15 $8 $0 +1%
Set Handicap: Landaluce (-1.5) vs Atmane (+1.5) Jun 15 $271 +$2 +1%
Set Handicap: Safiullin (-1.5) vs Tarvet (+1.5) Jun 15 $792 +$7 +1%
Tessa Brockmann vs. Alycia Parks: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $38 $0 +1%
Brockmann vs. Parks: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 15 $106 +$1 +1%
Set Handicap: Parks (-1.5) vs Brockmann (+1.5) Jun 15 $144 +$1 +1%
Brockmann vs. Parks: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 15 $250 +$3 +1%
Brockmann vs. Parks: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 15 $264 +$3 +1%
Goiás EC to score first vs. Athletic Club? Jun 15 $37 $0 +1%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Team to Take First Corner Jun 14 $475 +$4 +1%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $177 +$9 +5%
Set Handicap: Avdeeva (-1.5) vs Vedder (+1.5) Jun 14 $644 +$6 +1%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $200 +$17 +8%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Team to Take First Corner Jun 13 $322 +$3 +1%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Qatar O/U 1.5 Corners Jun 13 $83 +$2 +2%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $100 $0 -0%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $68 +$1 +2%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $183 +$2 +1%
Set Handicap: Kawa (-1.5) vs Kasintseva (+1.5) Jun 13 $4 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Set Handicap: Sonego (-1.5) vs Navone (+1.5) SELL Navone 100¢ $55 1h
Set Handicap: Sonego (-1.5) vs Navone (+1.5) BUY Navone 99¢ $54 1h
Set Handicap: Paul (-1.5) vs Cerundolo (+1.5) SELL Cerundolo 100¢ $247 2h
Set Handicap: Paul (-1.5) vs Cerundolo (+1.5) BUY Cerundolo 99¢ $27 2h
Set Handicap: Samuel (-1.5) vs Arnaldi (+1.5) SELL Arnaldi 100¢ $10 2h
Set Handicap: Paul (-1.5) vs Cerundolo (+1.5) BUY Cerundolo 99¢ $31 2h
Set Handicap: Paul (-1.5) vs Cerundolo (+1.5) BUY Cerundolo 99¢ $92 2h
Set Handicap: Paul (-1.5) vs Cerundolo (+1.5) BUY Cerundolo 99¢ $43 2h
Set Handicap: Paul (-1.5) vs Cerundolo (+1.5) BUY Cerundolo 99¢ $51 2h
Set Handicap: Samuel (-1.5) vs Arnaldi (+1.5) BUY Arnaldi 99¢ $10 3h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 83¢ $150 11h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $167 11h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 91¢ $152 12h
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) BUY Germany 97¢ $150 21h
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) BUY Germany 96¢ $10 21h
Set Handicap: Kovackova (-1.5) vs Steur (+1.5) SELL Steur 100¢ $100 31h
Set Handicap: Dietrich (-1.5) vs Wehnelt (+1.5) BUY Wehnelt 99¢ $0 31h
Set Handicap: Kovackova (-1.5) vs Steur (+1.5) BUY Steur 99¢ $99 31h
Set Handicap: Kovackova (-1.5) vs Steur (+1.5) BUY Steur 99¢ $0 31h
Set Handicap: Estevez (-1.5) vs Pino (+1.5) BUY Pino 99¢ $132 44h
Set Handicap: Estevez (-1.5) vs Pino (+1.5) BUY Pino 99¢ $15 44h
Set Handicap: Aguilar/Fuente (-1.5) vs Couto/Rodrigues (+1.5) BUY Couto/Rodrigues 99¢ $5 44h
Set Handicap: Pino (-1.5) vs Estevez (+1.5) BUY Estevez 99¢ $5 44h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $158 44h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 96¢ $151 45h
Set Handicap: Medvedev (-1.5) vs Altmaier (+1.5) SELL Altmaier 100¢ $151 47h
Set Handicap: Medvedev (-1.5) vs Altmaier (+1.5) BUY Altmaier 99¢ $50 2d
Set Handicap: Medvedev (-1.5) vs Altmaier (+1.5) BUY Altmaier 99¢ $99 2d
Set Handicap: Humbert (-1.5) vs Medjedovic (+1.5) SELL Medjedovic 100¢ $100 2d
Set Handicap: Humbert (-1.5) vs Medjedovic (+1.5) BUY Medjedovic 99¢ $99 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 701 history records