Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T19:12:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

41
0x419f…e853
crypto · 778 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$131 -3%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$46 · open −$131
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$175
Realized+$46
Unrealized−$131
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses195 / 730
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions71
Markets (closed)925 / 778
History coverage43d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day76.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%
Chart Positions 71 History 925 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$457
7 days−$185
14 days+$508
30 days+$191
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,300 on June 17? No 2¢ 1¢ $19 $16 −$3 (-16%)
Will Base launch a token by September 30, 2026? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $15 $13 −$2 (-15%)
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $13 $10 −$3 (-20%)
Will the price of Solana be above $50 on June 15? No 1¢ 2¢ $5 $9 +$4 (+71%)
Will the price of Solana be above $50 on June 18? No 1¢ 2¢ $4 $9 +$5 (+131%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,300 on June 15? No 1¢ 0¢ $20 $7 −$14 (-68%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,200 on June 17? No 1¢ 1¢ $5 $6 +$2 (+30%)
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+23%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 18? No 2¢ 1¢ $9 $6 −$3 (-38%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+6%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? Yes 4¢ 2¢ $8 $5 −$3 (-40%)
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-50%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+21%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,300 on June 18? No 1¢ 2¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+66%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-9%)
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in June? Yes 10¢ 1¢ $29 $4 −$25 (-85%)
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on June 18? No 8¢ 4¢ $8 $4 −$4 (-50%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-6%)
Will Curaçao win the Fair Play Award for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 9¢ $0 $2 +$2 (+4425%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 18? No 8¢ 4¢ $4 $2 −$2 (-47%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 17? No 4¢ 1¢ $7 $2 −$5 (-67%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+3%)
Will Turkiye advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 81¢ 83¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Will England advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 3¢ 4¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+27%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-38%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on April 2? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bybit be accused of insider trading? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on April 4? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on March 12? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Over $50M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on April 7? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on March 5? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on March 8? Jun 13 $4 +$2 +43%
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on April 22? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on April 8? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Gensyn FDV above $600M one day after launch? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 2? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Will MrBeast's latest video get 24 million or more views on day 1? Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will Upbit be accused of insider trading? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 19? Jun 13 $0 $0 -45%
Will Xander Schauffele win the 2026 Masters tournament? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 10, 2026? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? Jun 13 $6 −$11 -184%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on April 3? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 30? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Trump say "Israel" 3+ times during Monday press conference? Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on March 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Devin Booker win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $73,000 on March 24? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 10°C on April 13? Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on February 26? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 9? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 13? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 17? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -75%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 25? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 26°C on April 15? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on March 13? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 22, 2026? Jun 13 $2 +$9 +428%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C or higher on April 12? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on April 16? Jun 13 $0 −$2 -371%
Will none of the eaglets hatch before April 17? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 1? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 20? Jun 13 $2 +$1 +43%
Will Beşiktaş JK vs. Antalyaspor end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Ethena be accused of insider trading? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Fenerbahçe SK vs. Beşiktaş JK: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on March 12? Jun 13 $1 +$4 +383%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 58-59°F on April 18? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will One Battle After Another win Best Adapted Screenplay at the 98th Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 8? Jun 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 5? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on April 16? Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 16? Jun 13 $1 −$2 -230%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 82% +$412
other 12% −$38
world 2% +$99
economics 1% −$6
sports 1% +$9
tech 1% −$3
politics 1% −$13
finance 0% +$4
weather 0% +$10
culture 0% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 14? BUY No 3¢ $1 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $8 1h
Will Solana dip to $50 in June? SELL Yes 4¢ $10 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $11 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $15 1h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $15 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 14? SELL Yes 100¢ $21 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 14? SELL Yes 100¢ $25 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 13? SELL Yes 100¢ $30 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 14? BUY Yes 100¢ $25 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 14? BUY Yes 100¢ $21 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $2 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 13? SELL Yes 100¢ $10 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 14? SELL Yes 100¢ $20 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 57¢ $7 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 17? SELL No 1¢ $1 5h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 16? SELL No 1¢ $2 5h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 18? SELL No 2¢ $3 5h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 18? SELL No 7¢ $5 5h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 18? SELL No 0¢ $4 5h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 18? SELL No 1¢ $7 5h
Will Ethereum reach $2,500 in June? SELL No 99¢ $7 5h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 17? SELL No 1¢ $7 5h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $52,000 on June 17? SELL No 1¢ $6 5h
Will Solana dip to $50 in June? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 9h
Will Solana dip to $50 in June? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 9h
Will Solana dip to $50 in June? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 10h
Will Solana dip to $50 in June? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 11h
Will Solana dip to $50 in June? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 11h
Will Solana dip to $50 in June? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-22.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 396 -38.7% -44.5% 13% 11% -27.2%
≤30d 738 -11.4% -19.8% 22% 19% -7.7%
≤90d 925 -13.9% -22.1% 21% 19% -11.4%
all 925 -13.9% -22.1% 21% 19% -11.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover76.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -22.1% 19% -11.4%
10% ← realistic here -29.5% 17% -19.9%
15% -36.3% 15% -27.6%
20% -42.6% 14% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $174.92 · official $176.93 · 3500 history records