Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T16:59:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

41 0x419f…22b3 other 10 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge

Total PnL +$23 (+11%) realized +$17 · open +$6

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +35% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +18% what you keep after slip

Net edge+18%after slip

Net WR88%break-even

Win rate88%7W / 1L

Drawdown62%max

Avg bet$21per market

Trades / day3.6pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit10%portable

Net worth$56now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +88%

net ROI/market (all)+22.4%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	8	+35.3%	+22.4%	88%	88%	+3.5%
≤30d	8	+35.3%	+22.4%	88%	88%	+3.5%
≤90d	8	+35.3%	+22.4%	88%	88%	+3.5%
all	8	+35.3%	+22.4%	88%	88%	+3.5%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover3.6 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to10%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+22.4%	88%	+3.5%
10%	+10.7%	75%	-6.4%
15%	-0.0%	62%	-15.5%
20%	-9.8%	62%	-23.7%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 51% · top 2 75% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +35% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$8 vs −$36 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×1.62 per $1 lost it wins $1.62

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage

Net worth$56

Realized+$17

Unrealized+$6

Win rate (resolved)88%

Wins / losses7 / 1

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions1

Markets (closed)8 / 10

History coverage4d

Avg bet$21

Trades / day3.6

Drawdown62%

Kalshi-fit10%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 8 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21?	Yes	89¢	100¢	$50	$56	+$6 (+12%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$36	−$36	-100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$56	+$29	+52%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$20	+$2	+12%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$20	+$14	+70%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 19	$2	+$2	+105%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 19	$4	+$1	+32%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$3	+$2	+57%
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$13	+$7	+54%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	89¢	$50	1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	84¢	$36	18h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	SELL Yes	100¢	$85	18h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	65¢	$56	34h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	58¢	$20	43h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	89¢	$20	43h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score AND Will United State	BUY	32¢	$5	2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	SELL Yes	100¢	$5	2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	48¢	$2	3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	63¢	$3	3d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	75¢	$4	3d
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	SELL Yes	100¢	$19	3d
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	77¢	$5	3d
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	58¢	$8	3d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $55.65 · official $55.65 (match) · 18 history records