Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T07:08:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
41 0x419d…e52b crypto 790 markets active 2h ago coverage 24d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (78 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$846 (-5%) realized −$846 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate49%391W / 399L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day77.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$320
7 days−$617
14 days−$738
30 days−$1,161
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$1,161
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (78 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-19.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 290 -13.7% -21.9% 47% 17% -15.5%
≤30d 790 -11.4% -19.9% 49% 20% -15.9%
≤90d 790 -11.4% -19.9% 49% 20% -15.9%
all 790 -11.4% -19.9% 49% 20% -15.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover77.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.9% 20% -15.9%
10% ← realistic here -27.5% 13% -24.0%
15% -34.5% 8% -31.3%
20% -41.0% 5% -38.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
58% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$6 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.49 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$846
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses391 / 399
Open positions0
Markets (closed)790 / 790
History coverage24d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day77.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 790 Trades
no open positions (116 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 23 $155 +$24 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 23 $51 +$18 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 23 $102 −$2 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 23 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 23 $101 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 23 $10 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 23 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 23 $152 +$5 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 23 $52 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 23 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 23 $20 −$10 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 23 $31 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 23 $10 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 23 $38 −$15 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 23 $46 −$6 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 23 $61 −$10 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 23 $82 −$3 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 23 $36 +$4 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 23 $72 −$5 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 23 $57 +$5 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 23 $61 −$18 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 23 $31 +$4 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 23 $101 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 23 $174 −$4 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 23 $132 −$2 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 23 $143 −$38 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 23 $71 −$49 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 23 $21 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 23 $184 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 23 $101 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 23 $117 +$6 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 23 $31 +$10 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 23 $60 −$9 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 23 $112 −$12 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 23 $111 −$6 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 23 $76 −$2 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 23 $73 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 23 $101 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 23 $82 −$29 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 23 $91 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 23 $51 −$2 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 23 $104 −$10 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 22 $52 −$8 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 22 $19 −$5 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 22 $103 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 22 $104 −$6 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 22 $51 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 22 $72 −$49 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 22 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 22 $22 +$8 +37%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET SELL Up 57¢ $58 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET SELL Down 61¢ $71 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET SELL Down 75¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $69 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET SELL Up 66¢ $42 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET SELL Up 77¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET SELL Up 74¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET SELL Up 90¢ $51 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $50 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET SELL Up 76¢ $53 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $51 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET SELL Down 62¢ $12 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $51 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $50 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET SELL Up 91¢ $58 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $51 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET SELL Up 88¢ $49 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $50 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET SELL Up 74¢ $50 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $51 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2547 history records