Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:34:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
41 0x419c…fac7 sports 3 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$25 (+27%) realized +$25 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate67%2W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day6.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-15.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -6.0% -15.0% 67% 33% -14.5%
≤30d 3 -6.0% -15.0% 67% 33% -14.5%
≤90d 3 -6.0% -15.0% 67% 33% -14.5%
all 3 -6.0% -15.0% 67% 33% -14.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.0% 33% -14.5%
10% -23.1% 33% -22.7%
15% -30.5% 33% -30.2%
20% -37.3% 33% -37.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 91% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% too few recent
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$30 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$25
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses2 / 1
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)3 / 3
History coverage1d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day6.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 3 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $30 −$30 -98%
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $30 +$23 +74%
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $31 +$2 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $30 1h
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 0.5 SELL Over 99¢ $53 1h
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 0.5 BUY Over 56¢ $30 2h
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $33 2h
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 0.5 BUY Over 93¢ $30 2h
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 0.5 BUY Over 84¢ $1 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 6 history records