Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T02:43:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
41 0x419a…f415 crypto 130 markets active 0h ago coverage 26d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$31 (+1%) realized +$26 · open +$5
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate88%110W / 15L
Drawdown80%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day9.8pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$15now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$17
7 days+$1
14 days−$6
30 days+$30
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 43% +$25
other 26% +$8
crypto 22% −$6
world 9% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-7.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 50 +0.3% -9.3% 80% 16% -9.5%
≤30d 125 +1.8% -7.9% 88% 17% -8.2%
≤90d 125 +1.8% -7.9% 88% 17% -8.2%
all 125 +1.8% -7.9% 88% 17% -8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.9% 17% -8.2%
10% -16.7% 5% -17.0%
15% -24.7% 2% -25.0%
20% -32.1% 2% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$4 · ×0.2 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.45 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

26d coverage
Net worth$15
Realized+$26
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses110 / 15
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)125 / 130
History coverage26d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day9.8
Drawdown80%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 125 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 98¢ 98¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 5.5 Under 97¢ $0 $5 +$5 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $5 $0 +5%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $6 +$1 +9%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $131 +$8 +6%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 $0 +8%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $127 +$4 +3%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $121 +$6 +5%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $58 −$16 -27%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $100 −$21 -21%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 15 $1 $0 +9%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 $0 +4%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $2 $0 +14%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $10 $0 +3%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $20 +$1 +7%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -90%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Draw at halftime? Jun 15 $3 +$2 +54%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $5 $0 +4%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $3 $0 +6%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $5 $0 +5%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 14 $5 $0 +2%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 14 $10 +$1 +12%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $10 $0 +4%
Australia vs. Türkiye: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $10 +$1 +6%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $20 $0 +2%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $1 $0 +11%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $5 $0 +5%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $20 $0 +1%
Scotland leading at halftime? Jun 14 $4 $0 +1%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Haiti O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $2 $0 +1%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 14 $1 $0 +4%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $5 $0 +8%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $5 $0 +2%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $10 +$1 +5%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 13 $111 +$12 +11%
Will England be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Jun 13 $20 −$2 -8%
Will Spain be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Jun 13 $20 −$1 -4%
Will Portugal be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Jun 13 $15 $0 -3%
Will Brazil be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Jun 13 $5 $0 +3%
Will France be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Jun 13 $20 $0 -1%
Will Argentina be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Jun 13 $20 $0 -2%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $48 $0 +1%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 13 $5 +$1 +19%
United States leading at halftime? Jun 13 $10 +$2 +17%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $44 +$1 +3%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $5 −$1 -14%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $10 +$1 +11%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $5 $0 +2%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 Jun 11 $3 $0 +4%
Mexico leading at halftime? Jun 11 $45 +$3 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 98¢ $5 0m
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 98¢ $10 13m
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $5 48m
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 95¢ $5 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $7 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 92¢ $6 1h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 100¢ $139 2h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 94¢ $131 3h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 92¢ $5 23h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 100¢ $131 26h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 97¢ $127 27h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score SELL No 100¢ $127 32h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY No 95¢ $121 33h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 67¢ $42 33h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 74¢ $79 33h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 90¢ $2 33h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score in First Half SELL No 100¢ $1 33h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 92¢ $88 33h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY No 91¢ $1 34h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 98¢ $10 34h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 91¢ $58 34h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $10 46h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 84¢ $5 46h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 82¢ $5 46h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 96¢ $10 47h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 84¢ $6 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score SELL No 100¢ $2 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 100¢ $10 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $21 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 93¢ $20 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15.03 · official $15.14 (match) · 306 history records