Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T03:59:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
41 0x4199…fcb7 other 77 markets active 0h ago coverage 607d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$43 (+0%) realized +$40 · open +$3
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate24%18W / 56L
Drawdown49%max
Avg bet$263per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$129now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$11
30 days−$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 68% −$13
other 16% −$11
politics 11% −$8
sports 2% +$76
culture 1% $0
tech 1% $0
economics 1% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-7.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 17 -6.0% -15.0% 6% 0% -10.9%
≤90d 59 +2.1% -7.6% 25% 17% -8.5%
all 74 +1.9% -7.8% 24% 15% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.8% 15% -9.3%
10% -16.7% 15% -18.0%
15% -24.7% 11% -25.9%
20% -32.1% 9% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
39% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$2 · ×4.44 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.43 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

607d coverage
Net worth$129
Realized+$40
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses18 / 56
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)74 / 77
History coverage607d
Avg bet$263
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown49%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 74 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $83 $84 +$0 (+0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+0%)
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs Chicago Cubs 48¢ 56¢ $13 $16 +$2 (+18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $29 $0 -0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Jun 19 $40 $0 -0%
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $31 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $31 $0 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $26 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $27 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $31 $0 -0%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 10 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 08 $22 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $173 $0 -0%
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 02 $33 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $32 $0 -0%
Will Solana reach $120 in May? Jun 01 $58 $0 +0%
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 31 $32 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $174 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 24 $24 $0 -0%
Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 23 $30 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 08 $140 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $147 $0 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? May 06 $151 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 5? May 06 $55 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 3? May 05 $52 $0 +0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $141 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 02 $144 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 02 $293 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $292 $0 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 01 $145 $0 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $149 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $140 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? Apr 25 $151 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Apr 25 $144 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $146 $0 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 24 $292 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? Apr 23 $150 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $141 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 22 $139 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $139 $0 -0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $139 $0 -0%
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 16 $154 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 15 $149 $0 -0%
Will Kang Hoon-sik win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 15 $148 $0 -0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 14 $143 $0 -0%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $8 −$8 -100%
Capitals vs. Maple Leafs Apr 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Hawks vs. Cavaliers Apr 09 $8 −$8 -100%
Sabres vs. Rangers Apr 09 $7 +$5 +72%
Oilers vs. Utah Apr 09 $7 +$7 +89%
Heat vs. Raptors Apr 08 $12 +$11 +90%
Blackhawks vs. Sharks Apr 07 $11 +$7 +59%
Trail Blazers vs. Nuggets Apr 07 $15 +$4 +29%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $29 24m
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $29 1h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Chicago Cubs 48¢ $14 26h
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? SELL No 100¢ $20 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $30 2d
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY No 100¢ $20 2d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $31 3d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $31 3d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $83 4d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $31 4d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $31 4d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $26 5d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $26 5d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $27 6d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $27 6d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $31 11d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $31 11d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 47¢ $11 13d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $22 13d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $22 13d
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? SELL No 100¢ $20 18d
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY No 100¢ $20 18d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $23 18d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $23 18d
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $33 19d
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $33 19d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $32 20d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $32 20d
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $32 21d
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $32 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $129.08 · official $129.08 (match) · 282 history records