Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T19:27:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
41 0x4197…74e6 crypto 64 markets active 1h ago coverage 12d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$110 (-26%) realized −$110 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate34%22W / 42L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day7.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$14
7 days−$55
14 days−$95
30 days−$95
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 75% −$53
sports 20% −$35
other 5% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-34.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 -26.4% -33.4% 37% 37% -31.3%
≤30d 64 -27.2% -34.1% 34% 34% -29.9%
≤90d 64 -27.2% -34.1% 34% 34% -29.9%
all 64 -27.2% -34.1% 34% 34% -29.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -34.1% 34% -29.9%
10% -40.4% 33% -36.6%
15% -46.2% 31% -42.7%
20% -51.5% 23% -48.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -23% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -27% · $-wt -23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -23% → late -31% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$6 · ×1.15 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$110
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses22 / 42
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)64 / 64
History coverage12d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day7.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 64 Trades
no open positions (32 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$8 +152%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$5 +92%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$5 +46%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$3 -64%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$7 +133%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$10 -95%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$4 +70%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$4 -60%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 -0%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$4 -73%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$3 +59%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +38%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$1 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -96%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 +$3 +34%
Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5) Jun 11 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$3 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$3 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 10 $16 −$15 -94%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,550 on June 10? Jun 10 $8 −$7 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $3 +$4 +137%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $10 +$8 +74%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Boston Red Sox vs. Ne Jun 10 $10 −$6 -62%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 10? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -94%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 10 $5 +$4 +93%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 June 8-14? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $3 −$3 -94%
Will Ethereum reach $1,750 on June 9? Jun 09 $6 −$5 -94%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $10 +$11 +109%
Will Solana reach $70 on June 8? Jun 08 $4 −$4 -94%
Will Ethereum reach $1,800 on June 8? Jun 08 $5 −$5 -94%
Will Ethereum reach $1,750 on June 8? Jun 08 $10 −$10 -94%
Will Solana reach $80 on June 8? Jun 08 $7 −$6 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $19 +$17 +88%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $5 36m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $10 41m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 46m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $10 56m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET SELL Up 13¢ $2 57m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $5 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $5 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $11 12h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $5 13h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET SELL Down 47¢ $2 13h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 13h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET SELL Down 82¢ $5 13h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $5 13h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET SELL Up 18¢ $1 13h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $5 14h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $5 14h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $5 14h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET SELL Up 36¢ $4 14h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $5 14h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $3 14h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $3 14h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $3 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $5 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $5 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $5 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $1 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $1 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET SELL Up 20¢ $0 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $1 40h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 106 history records